🥛 5 surprises from a16z's crypto report 🤨

GM. This is Milk Road, the daily newsletter that risks social isolation, so you can get smarter about crypto!

Here’s what we got for you today:

✍️ 5 surprises from a16z’s State Of Crypto report
✍️ The market is fearful (bullish!)
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Will Follow Gold’s Playbook to Valhalla w/ Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen
🍪 Trump just pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao

Consensus Miami is the largest conference that covers all sides of crypto & web3. Grab your tickets now before prices rise.

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5 SURPRISES FROM A16Z’S ‘STATE OF CRYPTO 2025’ REPORT 🤨

Did I cancel my plans yesterday evening to read a16z’s ‘State of Crypto 2025’ report?

Yes.

Did my friends call me “lil’ crypto b*tch boy” for doing so?

Also yes.

But hey – they’re just feelings I guess.

Here are 5 things that made me go “Oh shoot, really??” when reading the report:

1/ The ‘Treasury Effect’ favors $ETH

Michael Saylor / Strategy ($MSTR) have been pouring BILLIONS into Bitcoin, with purchase sizes that make my eyes water. We’re talking $73B, cumulatively.

…but Bitcoin is no longer leading the race as far as ‘total effect of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) company purchases on supply’ goes.

(Ooof! That’s a mouthful – let’s just call it the Treasury Effect.)

DATs collectively hold $82.56B worth of Bitcoin, and $18.09B of Ethereum.

But even with 1/5th the total holdings, the effect on total supply is greater on Ethereum.

(And the greater the supply restriction → the higher the price tends to go.)

Which makes sense. The cheaper the asset, the further your money goes… I just didn’t think this milestone would be reached so soon.

Source: a16zCrypto

2/ The #1 country for crypto related web traffic by population is…

Australia??

I haven’t been this proud of my country since our former Prime Minister chugged a beer in under 10 seconds while leaving the Sydney Cricket Ground.

(Miss you Hawkey.)

Source: a16zCrypto

3/ Base Chain just flipped Solana in builder interest

Solana may still hold the #2 spot in open source developer activity overall, but Base Chain took the #2 spot in terms of builder interest.

If this interest can convert to action over the coming year or so, we can expect to see a whole bunch of builder activity on Base Chain.

(Brb, farming for a potential $BASE airdrop.)

Source: a16zCrypto

4/ Stablecoins are breaking their correlation with broader crypto trading volumes

This is a sign of organic adoption – here’s why…

If you trade a stable for, say, $ETH – that volume is attributed to general crypto volume.

But if you trade stablecoins without swapping into another asset (e.g. send someone 50 $USDC for goods/services) – according to this chart, that volume is attributed to stablecoin trading volume.

So when the two forms of volume no longer correlate, it indicates that stablecoins are being used not just as a way to buy crypto, but as a way to move money in general.

More money held in stables (instead of fiat cash) = more money staying in the crypto ecosystem = crypto sector growth.

Source: a16zCrypto

5/ NFTs aren’t coming back… they ARE back

At least, that’s what the data below suggests – NFT monthly active buyers hit all-time highs this year.

(Weird, I’m still underwater on my Feet Pix ‘investment’...)

My guess as to why we’re seeing this uptick? Coinbase’s adoption of Zora – the Instagram-style feed, where every photo is an NFT.

Source: a16zCrypto

Alright, those are my top 5 surprises.

Which one topped your ‘Oh shoot, really?’ o-meter:

The ‘Treasury Effect’ favoring $ETH
Australia being #1 in crypto web traffic
Solana getting flipped for builder interest
Stablecoin volume decorrelating
The NFT resurgence

Reply to this email and let me know!

Lil’ crypto b*tch boy, out.

THE SUPER BOWL OF BLOCKCHAIN

Most crypto conferences feel the same… but this one’s different.

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Here’s why it’s worth checking out:

Over 20,000 industry leaders will be attending
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It’s happening in Miami (you’re bound to have a good time)

And here’s the best part:

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Grab yours now, before prices rise.

WE’RE VERGING ON EXTREME FEAR (HERE’S THE SILVER LINING) 🌧️

The crypto market has been grinding sideways since the Oct 13th crash – but sentiment hasn’t been following that same pattern.

It’s worse.

The Fear & Greed Index (which tracks investor sentiment) has continued to fall from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Fearful’, and is now playing chicken with ‘Extremely Fearful’. 👇

Source: CoinMarketCap

And as far as recent history goes, this trip below Neutral has been an extended one.

Outside of the tariff-driven growth scare that started in February – these dips into Fearful territory are typically measured in days.

But this current run is pushing a week and a half, with no reversal in sight. Hell – we’re closer to flipping into ‘Extreme Fear’ than we are back to ‘Neutral’.

Here’s the silver lining to all of this:

Hitting (or flirting with) ‘Extreme Fear’ often marks a local bottom for prices – meaning we’re probably closer to a reversal than you’d think.

Though, fair warning: it might not happen right away…

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, says a dip below $100k for $BTC “seems inevitable” by this weekend.

But thankfully, he believes it will be short-lived, suggesting investors:

"Stay nimble and ready to buy the dip below $100,000 if it comes" – adding that this could be "the last time Bitcoin is EVER below" this level.

Our plan? The same as ever:

Hold majors. Zoom out. Chill out.

P.S. If you’re looking to buy the dip across Ethereum and/or Solana – Milk Road Swap makes it easy.

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CRYPTO PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔

Ahhh ‘grind sideways mode,’ hello old friend – it’s been a minute.

Now, when are you leaving?

(And who’s replacing you? Our dearly beloved ‘up only mode’ – or his evil twin brother ‘down only’?)

For that answer, let’s check in with our trusty cycle indicators…

The goal here is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.

Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.

⚠️ CLICK HERE to view the Crypto PRO “Where Are We In The Cycle” Indicators.

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