🥛 BTC hasn't done this since 2018 📉

GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that tracks crypto closer than your grandma tracks your love life.

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

✍️ The market is in limbo. Where to from here?
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: The Real Bull Case: Why Coinbase Could Explode When Crypto Recovers.
🍪 Today’s FOMC minutes are NOT an emergency crash response.

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Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Trade today with Milk Road Swap.

THE MARKET IS IN LIMBO - WHERE TO FROM HERE AND HOW DO WE APPROACH IT? 🤔

Bitcoin recently posted 4 back-to-back monthly losses for the first time since 2018 - and now it’s making a run for 5 (yikes!).

Source: Coinglass

Meanwhile, altcoin sell pressure is at its highest extreme in 5yrs!

Ooof. That’s no fun.

And it’s likely stirring up all kinds of impulsive desires within you - none of which are healthy.

(E.g. rage quitting, panic selling, pre-marital lust… wait, scratch that last one.)

Point is: it’s time we take stock of where we’re at and try to form a balanced view of the near-term horizon, instead of letting our emotions take the wheel.

Let’s do just that, by breaking down the current state of Bitcoin & alts, while giving an overview of how both sides of the investor class are seeing things (bulls vs. bears)...

Starting with Bitcoin’s 4 back-to-back monthly losses.

For context: this is rare.

BTC’s historical record is 6 straight red months from Aug-Jan in 2018/2019 (it’s the only time in its history that we’ve broken beyond 4 months of bleed).

Meaning, if February ends as a down month, it will only be the second time we’ve seen these kinds of consistent monthly losses.

The silver lining: history suggests that at worst, we have another 6 weeks or so of pain before we see relief (which would give us a bounce somewhere in April).

Ok, so - worst case, how low could we go?

Analysts are suggesting potential bottoms in the $40-$50k range, which would see us breaking the 200-week moving average and (according to historical patterns) likely lead to us grinding sideways for at least a couple of months.

Source: TradingView

“Boooo! That stinks. Gimme the best case” – you, probably.

Best case: we already bottomed on Feb 5th, and the recovery has already begun.

And that, right there, is a pretty decent cross-section of how each side is reading the current situation (bears vs. bulls):

The bulls believe we’ve bottomed and are treating this as an accumulation opportunity.
The bears are pointing to the classic post-halving bear market narrative and are looking at an October reversal.
Those that sit somewhere in between are marking $74k as the line in the sand - where a reclaim would confirm the bull trend, and a rejection would open the door to lower lows.

Meanwhile, as mentioned at the top - altcoin sell pressure is at its highest extreme in 5yrs.

Let’s dig into that…

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THE MARKET IS IN LIMBO - WHERE TO FROM HERE AND HOW DO WE APPROACH IT? (P2) 🤔

Crypto Quant data is showing 13 consecutive months of net selling pressure on altcoins (the crypto market cap, exc. BTC & ETH).

With the 1-Year Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference metric having collapsed from near zero in January 2025:

Source: @cryptoquant_com

For context: the Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume on alts is now ~3x worse than it was at the peak of the FTX crash/sell off.

Good news is, the total altcoin market cap appears to be flattening out around $700B - a far cry from last year's $1.2T peak, but still holding within the same channel it’s been in since Nov 2024:

Source: TradingView

… so what could break alts out of their funk?

The bullish catalysts to watch for when it comes to alts are:

BTC consolidating and holding (looks like that could be happening).
Loosening financial conditions (rate cuts are coming in the second half of 2026).
Any forward movement on the CLARITY Act ("Hopefully by April" according to Sen. Bernie Moreno).

The first point will likely help to support alts, while the second two could act as tailwinds.

Ok, that’s a big ol’ mess of datapoints, price levels, and historical patterns - how do we parse it all?

Here’s where I personally stand:

February reversal? April reversal? October reversal?

Why make life harder by trying to pick/time one?

I’m taking the path of least resistance and dollar-cost-averaging throughout, giving myself the option to increase my purchase sizes during significant dips (and lower my overall cost basis).

My thinking being:

On a 5-10 year time horizon, months and timing are noise.

Consistency and patience are key.

If I mid-curve it, I lose.