🥛 Did Trump just tank your portfolio? 📉

GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that catalogs how and why geopolitics is affecting your magic internet money!

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

✍️ Trump wants to buy Greenland.
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TRUMP WANTS TO BUY GREENLAND. MARKETS AREN’T STOKED 📉

Trump just went full ‘Andrew Johnson’.

(The President that oversaw the U.S.’ territorial purchase of Alaska back in 1867.)

But this time, he’s eyeing the other side of the continental divide…

1. So, what happened, exactly?

On Saturday afternoon, Trump announced that the U.S. needs to purchase Greenland by June 1st, or else:

Source: @MilkRoadMacro

2. Yikes! Which assets did this affect?

(As you can imagine) just about all of them.

S&P 500 futures fell, safe haven assets like gold & silver ripped to new all-time highs, while most of the $130B gains made by the crypto market last Wednesday were erased.

Source: @WatcherGuru

Ok, not great. BUT!

Tariff threats aren’t new. We’ve experienced this sort of thing in the recent past…

So how will it play out this time around?

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TRUMP WANTS TO BUY GREENLAND. MARKETS AREN’T STOKED (P2) 📉

If you’re getting the same feeling now as you did when you first saw Star Wars: The Force Awakens, you’re not alone.

We’ve seen this movie before.

Here’s how the story usually plays out…

3. What can we learn from history?

A few months back, the Kobeissi Letter cooked up their ‘Trump Tariff Playbook’ – and boy is it a banger!

The basic beats of the playbook go like this:

Trump announces new tariffs on a weekend.
Trump keeps adding pressure on Monday & Tuesday, sending risk assets down further.
By Wednesday of that same week, dip buyers step in and spark a relief rally.
On the following weekend, President Trump posts that discussions are underway and that he is working toward a solution.
After the Monday open, senior administration officials appear on live television to reassure investors and emphasize progress toward a deal.
A trade deal is teased over the next 2-4 weeks.
A deal is announced, markets hit new record highs.
Repeat.

Source: @MilkRoadMacro

… the big question is: will the story follow this formula as closely this time around?

We’re not holding our breath.

4. Why history’s patterns may not repeat as cleanly this time

As far as threats go, ‘10-25% tariffs on all exports heading into the world’s largest economy’ is a pretty solid one.

But it’s always going to be counter-balanced by the ‘ask’.

Last October, when Trump threatened tariffs on China – the ‘ask’ was that China keep the flow of rare earth metals headed America’s way (something China agreed to quite easily).

This time around, things are getting medieval!

The ‘ask’ is an autonomous territory (Greenland) of a foreign kingdom (Denmark).

These two situations are not the same. And the response so far highlights that.

The well-trodden path of ‘quiet diplomacy’ seems to have been skipped and replaced by troop deployment, emergency meetings, and $110B worth of retaliatory tariffs.

It’s still early days, and this thing will likely stay highly fluid for a hot minute.

(Maybe the U.S. doesn’t end up purchasing Greenland, but massively increases its military bases on the island instead?)

Either way: the idea that this thing will solve itself within a month or two, quietly ending with soon-forgotten capitulations from both sides?

Sure, it’s not entirely off the table, but as we said: we’re not holding our breath.

Ok, that’s a whole bunch of hand waving…

5. What’s the actual likelihood that Denmark will fold and sell Greenland to the U.S.?

We don’t have a crystal ball. But we do have Polymarket.

And so far, it’s telling us that the purchase isn’t going to happen, with a 79% likelihood:

Source: Polymarket

As always, we’ll keep our ears bolted to the ground and let you know what’s happening / how it's affecting markets as more unfolds.

P.S. If you’re wondering, “Isn’t the Supreme Court most likely going to overturn Trump’s tariffs this week?” – yes, that’s a possibility. But there’re ways around it for the Trump administration…