🥛 Macro set up = BULLISH! 🤘

GM. This is Milk Road – this afternoon’s crypto forecast: sunny with a chance of memes.

Here’s what we got for you today:

✍️ PPI beat = Bullish!
✍️ $SBET starts buybacks
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Why Bitcoin Still Has the Highest Risk-Reward in All of Crypto w/ David Bailey
🍪 Linea (the Ethereum L2) started its airdrop today

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Prices as of 2:00 PM ET, provided by CoinGecko.

PPI DATA JUST INCREASED OUR CHANCES OF HEAVIER RATE CUTS 🎉

When it comes to rate cut outlooks this year, it feels like all of the ‘bad’ options have been taken off the table.

Right now, the market is mostly debating on whether they’ll be:

Good: 3 cuts in 2025, starting with a 0.25% decrease this month, OR
Great: 3 cuts in 2025, starting with a 0.50% decrease this month

And the needle was tipped even further towards ‘great’ yesterday, when March's job growth was revised down by 911,000 – the largest downward revision in history.

Why is this bullish? Because a weakening job market is typically remedied with cuts.

(Lowered rates make loans cheaper, allowing businesses to borrow more money and hire more people.)

…oh and they generally push more cash into the economy, helping to float crypto prices in the process – but who’s counting that?

The only obvious thing that could muddy the outlook here is a massive inflation spike.

And this is why everyone has been anticipating today’s PPI data release (which tracks inflation in wholesale prices).

The fear being: if we get a repeat of last month, when PPI showed a massive, unexpected spike over the trailing month – it could lower rate cut expectations and spook the market. 👇

Source: @MilkRoadMacro

Alright, now – calm those jitters and move your finger as far away from the panic button as humanly possible, because…

We just beat PPI expectations by a significant amount, showing that inflation is cooling:

Source: @MilkRoadMacro

Here’s the math on all of the above:

Revised jobs data showing even greater weakness (indicating a need for rate cuts) + PPI showing reduced wholesale inflation (allowing for greater cuts, with less inflation worries) =

A greater chance of a 0.50% cut this month (likely pushing crypto prices up across the board!)

And betting markets are backing that math up…

Post-PPI release, chances of a 0.50% cut rose, while 0.25% fell. 👇

Source: Polymarket

All of this…it’s…

It’s beautiful, no? 🥲

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$SBET STARTS BUYBACKS 🤝

PSA: The world’s second largest Ethereum treasury company, SharpLink Gaming ($SBET), currently has a premium of 0.96x on its $ETH holdings.

(Meaning the company’s total value is worth less than its total $ETH holdings.)

That’s the glass half full view:

SharpLink is currently trading at a discount, where a $1k investment into $SBET will get you more $ETH exposure than a $1k investment into Ethereum itself.

…glass half empty?

These kinds of discounts are only attractive to investors if they believe $SBET’s stock price will increase from here, rebounding its premiums in the process.

So how can $SBET signal to the market that such a move is on the horizon?

Simplest solution: stock buybacks. 👇

Source: @SharpLinkGaming

Here’s a closer look at the plan:

To help float its market value when needed, $SBET has a program that allows it to spend a total of $1.5B on buying back its own stock – using only existing cash on hand & staking yield.

(I.e. they won’t be selling their acquired $ETH treasury holdings to fund these buybacks.)

And yesterday, they used that allowance for the first time, buying back ~$15M worth of their own shares – or 1% of the total $1.5B allowance.

Ok, sounds good on paper – but is it actually working?

Yep. So far.

Following the pre-market announcement yesterday morning, $SBET’s stock moved up roughly 10% (bottom-to-top) from its previous close. 👇

Source: TradingView

The message $SBET is sending to the market:

We just moved our stock +10% by spending just 1% of our buyback allowance
Meaning, if needs be, we can make the same purchase another 99 times over
And we’ll continue to make them as long as our premium is below 1x

Guaranteed buy-pressure from a $1.5B piggy bank?

Yep. Definitely getting a ‘glass half full’ kinda feeling right now.

P.S. shout outs to our PRO All Access members who bought when we put the bat signal up back in July, when $SBET was trading at $10.10 (vs. $16.55 today). 👇

Source: PRO All Access Discord

👉 Upgrade to PRO All Access here.

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This DEX solves an actual UX issue! Milk Road Swap supports both Ethereum and Solana tokens in a single interface.

How to win on prediction markets — where things are at right now, and how to get started if you’re late to the party.

Damn dude! PumpFun has now bought back over 6% of the circulating $PUMP supply since the token launched.

Do you qualify? Linea (the Ethereum L2) started its airdrop today, making 9B tokens available to early users, with plans to eventually distribute 75% of the supply.

Milk Road’s Bitcoin Price page offers real-time pricing for $BTC, keeping you updated on every move. With a clean layout and reliable data, it’s perfect for those closely tracking Bitcoin’s market activity.