🥛 Shutdown risk just hit 79% 🚨

GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that makes crypto make sense (without melting your brain... or your portfolio).

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

✍️ What to look out for this week.
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: What Coinbase Ventures Is Buying in Crypto Right Now w/ Hoolie Tejwani.
🍪 TSLA onchain anyone?

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WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK 📆

Good lord there is a lot to watch this week!

So let’s cut the preambles and dive right into it…

Ready? Good.

1. Macro 🌎

This section may feel light…

But what we’re lacking in scheduled macro data releases, we’re making up for in government movements (more on that in section 3).

Here’re the macro events to watch for this week:

January Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday - A vibe check with consumers for the month of Jan.
Fed Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference - Wednesday - Will we get a rate cut? (Doubt it.)
December PPI Inflation data - Friday - Did the cost of wholesale goods go up or down in December?

The most important macro event of the bunch? The Fed’s Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference.

Though mostly the press conference, as the interest rate decision is likely already priced in:

Source: CMEgroup

2. Earnings 💰

It’s a big ol’ week for earnings!

Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) are all pulling back their respective kimonos and showing us their Q4 numbers.

Here’s who’s yapping, when:

Source: @eWhispers

Ok, now for the BIG stuff.

A whooole bunch of government-related news hit over the weekend, and it's a must-follow for any investor with money deployed in risk assets. 👇

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WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK (P2) 📆

Right. Getting comfortable. Centering my chi.

Deep breath in…

Aaaand go!

3. Government 🏛️

Another weekend → another sh*t show in terms of market-moving headlines…

First, this:

Source: @MorningBrew

Yuh. Not great.

But wait - this wound needs more salt! We also got this:

House Republicans recently passed spending bills including $64B for DHS & border security, and now Senate Democrats are vowing to block votes without significant changes.

Sound familiar? It should. This mirrors the kind of friction that led to the 43-day shutdown we saw last fall (a period in which crypto markets fell roughly 25%).

And when the news broke of this most recent split, the likelihood of a shutdown happening this month shot WAY up.

Source: Polymarket

Put them together and you have a market riddled with uncertainty (not great for risk assets).

The silver lining? The increased distrust in the U.S. as a trade partner is hurting the U.S. Dollar’s strength (tracked by the DXY).

Which sounds bad - but for crypto, a weaker dollar is typically a good thing.

When reliable returns disappear from classically safe dollar yield products, like U.S. Treasuries, capital doesn't sit idle.

Instead, it tends to move further out along the risk curve - into asset classes like crypto.

Sure, USD weakness alone won’t automatically = bull run. But it’s a step in the right direction…

Source: TradingView

Oh, and on top of all of that: we have the Senate Agriculture Committee voting on the Market Structure bill at 10:30 a.m. Thursday.

If it advances, expect bullish momentum as the market prices in an eventual passage. If it stalls, expect continued weakness as the regulatory overhang persists.

Phew, ok, we got through it…

4. Podcasts 🎙️

I know I say this most weeks, but… HOLY HELL, our podcast team is cooking!

Monday: Hoolie Tejwani, Head of Coinbase Ventures - Milk Road Daily.
Tuesday: Raoul Pal, macro/liquidity goat & Founder/CEO of Real Vision - Milk Road Daily.
Wednesday: Nick Forster, CEO & Co-Founder at Derive - Milk Road Daily.
Thursday: Mark Yusko, Founder, CEO & CIO of Morgan Creek Capital - Milk Road Macro.
Thursday: The Bitwise Boyz, one of the largest asset managers in the world - Milk Road Daily.