🥛 The 10yr cycle theory 🕵️♂️

GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that removes the sugar coating and replaces it with chili flakes.

Here’s a taste of this week’s menu:

🔥 Crypto x AI isn't dead. It’s quietly evolving.
🥵 4yr crypto cycle? Nah. Try a 10yr cycle, son!
🌶️ Meta has an invisible lead in AI that everyone’s missing.

Arc is a new Layer-1 blockchain designed to support real-world economic activity and it’s now live in testnet. Dive into Arc and start experimenting.

HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK 🔥

Crypto x AI isn't dead. It’s quietly evolving. 🤫

Coinbase Global Head of Investment Research & CFA, David Duong, argues that AI x crypto is evolving into a tool for micro-commerce.

Using protocols like the Coinbase-incubated x402, AI agents can now handle micro-payments and micro-settlements onchain.

(Giving birth to a new form of agentic payments and enabling global payment distribution for creators & devs in a way traditional banking never could.)

🎙️ Listen to the full Milk Road Daily episode here.

The 4yr cycle is dead. Long live the 10yr cycle! 💀

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan believes the Bitcoin four-year cycle is a "dead man walking".

What will replace it?

A "10-year grind higher" cycle fueled by institutional demand and regulatory concrete (making the old boom-bust rhythm irrelevant).

🎙️ Listen to the full Milk Road Daily episode here.

Meta has an invisible lead in AI that everyone’s missing 🏃♂️➡️

While the market often overlooks Meta as an AI play, Kris Patel argues they are actually best-positioned to win.

Why? Because they are already converting AI spend into tangible revenue.

By using AI to hyper-target ads and automate content creation for 3.5B users, they are generating real-time ROI while other companies are building vaporware.

🎙️ Listen to the full Milk Road AI episode here.

ARC IS NOW LIVE ON TESTNET

Circle is already one of the biggest names in crypto…

But most people still haven’t heard much about Arc, the Layer-1 blockchain built by Circle.

Arc is a new Layer-1 blockchain that’s now officially live on testnet.

It’s built to bring real-world economic activity onchain. And with full Circle platform integration at its core (e.g., USDC, EURC, USYC), it’s positioned to do exactly that.

Here’s what stands out:

Low and predictable gas fees paid in stablecoins
Instant settlement & deterministic finality
Native FX & Privacy infrastructure

Developers and institutions have already started testing on Arc. Now it’s your turn.

Dive into Arc and start experimenting.

HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK (P2) 🔥

Markets will peak in Q1 of 2026 👀

Fundstrat’s head of technical strategy, Mark Newton, says that despite a generally positive 2026 outlook, a midterm election year sell-off is still on the cards.

He expects markets to peak in late Q1 or early Q2, suffer through a negative August-to-October period, and only then begin a sustained rally into 2027 and 2028.

🎙️ Listen to the full Milk Road Macro episode here.

We were sold a lie 🤬

Milk Road co-owner and Head Of Research, Kyle Reidhead, argues that we (the industry) were sold a lie when it came to institutional entry into crypto throughout 2025.

While big players bought Bitcoin ETFs and public market proxies like Coinbase, literally zero dollars of traditional finance money flowed into altcoins or DeFi in 2025.

🎙️ Listen to the full Milk Road Daily episode here.

PRO INSIGHT OF THE WEEK 🔮

Head Macro Economist at Swissblock, Henrik Zeberg, recently published an article stating:

“I’m confident that we are witnessing a textbook late-cycle finale. Enjoy the sugar high if you’re trading it, but don’t for a second mistake it for a new secular bull.”

So naturally, our macro writer, Tomas, was pinged in our Discord for a reaction.

Tomas’ take?

“As I've outlined in the PRO reports and newsletters, the leading segments of the labor market (temporary help and overtime hours) are showing ‘early cycle’ signs, having ‘troughed’ in 2024.”

“People have quickly forgotten that we had an ‘official bear market’ (20%+ drawdown) in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq earlier this year.”

“This was most likely to have been the ‘end of cycle drawdown’ in my opinion. It's rare that SPX falls into a bear market and then quickly falls into another bear market within 18 months (it has happened, but not since the 70s/early 80s).”

“You can’t just ignore this period of time because it happened quickly or it doesn’t fit your narrative.”

“In the end, nobody really knows what will happen - it's all just a weighting of probabilities. I see the probabilities as pointing to a good year in 2026.”

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