GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that catches capital flows like a golden retriever chasing tennis balls.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ Checking in with Macro.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: The Next Crypto Bull Market May Already Be Starting… (Behind the Scenes) w/ Nic Roberts-Huntely.
- 🍪 What if AI agents don't use ETH or BTC?
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CHECKING IN WITH MACRO 🌎
ICYMI: macro economics controls/influences just about everything in the financial world.
Stocks, bonds, crypto…
The only thing that might be safe is Beanie Babies (their value hinges on the obsessive behavior of my weird aunt and her friends).
Point is: macro is important.
So where’re we at with it? Right now, it feels weirdly flat.
The Iran conflict started last Friday (BIG macro event) and in the 5 days following:
The S&P 500 stayed in the same sideways pattern it’s been following for months, while BTC largely followed suit - bouncing between $66-69k on its opening/closing candles…
But just because we’re not seeing market nukes and/or god candles right now, doesn’t mean nothing's happening under the hood…
In reality, what we're seeing is a stealth rotation.
(And it’s one of the more aggressive rotations in recent memory.)
Here’s our macro team’s breakdown on the current market:
Currently, we have the illusion of a "boring" market - but money is quietly pouring out of last cycle's winners (Mag 7, software, crypto) and into this cycle's leaders (industrials, materials, small caps, semis).
Single-stock dispersion is hitting 97-99th percentile extremes!
… which is a fancy way of saying:
Individual stocks are moving wildly in opposite directions while the index masks it all.
This flatness leads people to switch into "wait and see" mode - even though fortunes are being made and lost right now.
(You just can't see it if you're only watching the indexes.)
In fact, our macro team thinks we're in a Goldilocks setup.
Here’s what that looks like…
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CHECKING IN WITH MACRO (P2) 🌎
Growth is accelerating, inflation is cooling, and it looks like we’re seeing a mid-cycle re-acceleration:
- Global industrial indicators confirm a genuine cyclical upswing.
- Manufacturing gauges are turning.
- Trucking volumes are moving up.
- Heavy truck sales are strong.
… fun fact on that last point:
The previous 14 times that Heavy Truck Sales jumped by 55k units or more over 3 months, the S&P 500 moved higher over the following 5-12 months.
(In all but two cases.) 👇
So where does all of this leave us?
Our macro team's current lean:
Bullish overall - overweight cyclicals and industrial metals, while cautious on software, Mag 7, and crypto until they show strength again.
The one risk that keeps them up at night:
The dollar is showing early reversal signs…
- Dollar down = good for risk assets (inc. crypto).
- Dollar up = bad for risk assets.
(We’ll be watching the dollar closely.)
Now - zooming out…
Based on previous business cycles, our macro team believes the cycle peak (which typically correlates with a top in risk crypto prices) is likely 6-18 months away.
Late 2026 to late 2027, barring external shocks.
If this is the case, it would mean there’s real opportunity here.
(It’s just that most people can't see it yet.)
We’re going to take that as a win.
P.S. Want a WAY closer look at all of this data (and get updates once a month)? Go PRO All Access and you’ll get just that!
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MILKY MEMES 🤣
ROADIE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🥛
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