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Markets have been down quite badly since October 2025.
But they didn’t fall because fundamentals disappeared overnight.
They fell because sentiment changed.
And right now, sentiment is in deep sh*t measured by Fear and Greed Index.
The real question is: what do you do now?
- Some capitulate. They sell into weakness, lock in losses, and convince themselves they are done with crypto for good.
- Others step back and reassess. They ask a harder question: Where is fear creating mispricing?
Because when emotion drives price, fundamentals often get ignored:
- Revenue-generating protocols get valued as if there are no revenues anymore.
- Strong teams get priced as if execution no longer matters.
And that disconnect is where I hunt for value:
👉 Find a protocol where price reflects fear, not fundamentals.
Our job is not to time the exact shift in mood.
It is to build exposure to fundamentally strong protocols before the market recognizes their value.
Here is what I’m going to share with you today:
- Four high-conviction projects on our radar in the middle of peak fear.
- The bull case for each and why I believe the upside could be meaningful.
- The risks and weak spots that could break the thesis.
- Our ideal entry setup and how I am thinking about timing.
- The key metrics and milestones I need to see before committing capital.
This isn’t the typical long report. We’ve covered all these tokens before, and that is our personal investor moat: we’ve done the homework.
Now we can build on that and look at these tokens with fresh eyes. Not as users. Not as fans.
But purely from an investor’s point of view.
So let’s jump right in.
PUMP
You might look at the crypto market and think “memecoins are dead, and so is Pump.fun”.
But that would be a mistake.
👉 Pump may not be seeing all-time highs right now, but they’re still generating serious money.
PS: If you don’t know what Pump.Fun is, no worries. We have already broken it all down for you. Just check out our previous report right here and get the full picture.
Alright, let's have a look at the chart.
Pump.fun generated nearly $50M in revenue in January alone.
We know that the team directs the vast majority of that revenue toward buybacks. At this run rate, that implies roughly $500M–$600M in annualized revenue, with most of it potentially allocated to repurchasing PUMP tokens.
👉 If we assume that all of this revenue is allocated to buybacks and compare it to the current market cap, we arrive at a ratio of roughly 2x.
That implies an extremely low revenue multiple, suggesting PUMP is a good buy here.
👉 As supply gets steadily reduced through buybacks, that ongoing demand can compound and continue reinforcing upward pressure on the price.
It sounds compelling, right?
But we also need to look at the other side of the trade.
There are two key risks to keep in mind:
- Revenue sustainability. The current revenue levels may not last. Pump.Fun could continue generating strong numbers, but if activity (new issuance and trading) slows, revenues could decline sharply.
That scenario needs to be factored into any decision to buy the token, especially if the investment case depends heavily on continued buybacks. - Token unlocks. A significant amount of new supply is scheduled to enter the market.
Regardless of how strong revenues are, these unlocks could create additional selling pressure. It’s important to compare the size and timing of these unlocks against the scale of potential buybacks to understand the net supply impact.
The first risk is difficult to assess from the outside. We’re not in the trenches, so we don’t have full visibility into how durable those revenues really are. That said, the data so far suggests that this revenue may be more resilient than many would expect. Still, it remains a key variable.
The second risk, however, is more predictable.
We can analyze the upcoming unlock schedule and estimate the potential dilution going forward, which gives us a clearer picture of the net supply dynamics.
At the moment, roughly 64% of the total token supply is already in circulation.
Currently, around 5B new tokens are entering the market each month.
However, starting in July 2026, the supply dynamics change materially.
👉 A large one-time unlock of 50B tokens allocated to the team is scheduled, followed by an increase in ongoing monthly emissions to roughly 8B tokens per month.
At current prices, Pump.fun repurchased roughly 17B PUMP tokens in January alone.
Zooming out, over the past seven months since the buyback program began, the protocol has bought back around 85B tokens in total.
At today’s levels, the capital allocated to buybacks seems large enough to offset much of the ongoing supply entering the market.
Today: 10-15B PUMP tokens are bought back versus 5B being unlocked each month.
👉 Based on the current data, the setup looks constructive at these prices.
Here is the chart of PUMP.
The token has pulled back sharply over the past few months, in line with the broader market.
However, I believe current levels offer an attractive entry. The green zone marks what I see as a favorable accumulation range.
While I’m not assigning a specific price target, I expect the token to reprice higher over time.
👉 The core reason is the structure of sustained buy pressure, which currently appears strong enough to outpace even the projected future unlocks.
I have not even touched on the fact that Pump.fun raised $1.2B last year. I assume a large portion of that capital is still sitting in the treasury, which gives the team significant flexibility and buying power if needed.
From an investor’s perspective, that treasury also acts as a form of backstop.
If we view the treasury as a strategic advantage, we also need to be honest about the risks that come with it.
A large treasury means a high level of trust in the team.
The team could make poor investment decisions, deploy capital inefficiently, or act in ways that are not aligned with token holders.
So while the treasury strengthens the bull case, it also increases reliance on management quality and incentives.
👉 That said, the most critical part of our thesis is this: revenues staying strong and continuing to create meaningful buy pressure on the token over time.
Also, do not forget the big token unlocks coming in July.
Mark it on your calendar and revisit your positions before that hits the market.
Alright, let’s go to another candidate.
Uh, Oh… 😧 The rest of this report is exclusive to Crypto PRO or PRO All Access members!
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WHAT’S LEFT INSIDE? 👀
- Three conviction plays we are interested in.
- The price levels at which we start buying.
- The signals that will make or break the thesis.
- Why red screens today can mean big upside tomorrow.
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