GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that gives you the good, the bad, and (as of late) the ugly.
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ Should we be worried about Iran?
- ✍️ What to look out for
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Tether Co-Founder Explains Why The Real Crypto Bull Market Is Still Coming
- 🍪 10 consecutive weeks of inflows
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Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index.
SHOULD WE BE WORRIED ABOUT THE IRANIAN CONFLICT? 🧐
Over the weekend and leading into today, we saw:
- The US hit three Iranian nuclear sites
- Russia claim that other countries are ready to supply Iran with nuclear weapons
- Iran's parliament vote to close the Strait of Hormuz (a stretch of water that ~20% of the world’s oil supply passes through)
- Iran launch attacks targeting US military bases in Qatar
Each of which could have significant effects on the market.
…so how worried should crypto investors be about all of this?
Lemme answer your question with another question:
You know how in potentially stressful situations, kids will look to their parents – and if the parent’s demeanour is chill, the kid will likely stay chill?
Yeah, well – let’s all pretend the market is our dad, and check his body language.
(Spoiler: he’s “just finished mowing, now let me gaze upon my work” levels of stoic right now.) 👇
1/ Bitcoin
$BTC dropped ~5% from Saturday to Sunday, dipping below $100k before rebounding to sit at ~$101k as of this writing, bringing its 7 day returns to -4.6%.
(Aka: nothing out of the ordinary.)
2/ Oil n’ equities
(Weirdly) doing great, given the circumstances…
3/ The betting markets are calling bullsh*t on the scary stuff
- Iran gets a nuke in 2025? 16% chance as of this writing
- The Strait of Hormuz gets closed this week? 25% chance as of this writing
- The US declaring war on Iran at some point this year? 11% chance as of this writing 👇
The takeaway: things could change quickly from here on out – but for now, dad (the market) is keeping his cool across the board, so we’re following his lead.
P.S. Want to be kept up to date in real time? Our Milk Road Macro Twitter account will be covering all updates as they break – click here to subscribe!
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WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK 📆
We monitor upcoming events like a helicopter parent monitors their kid’s sugar intake.
Here’s what we’re looking at this week:
1/ Macro 📊
In general, we’ll be keeping our eyes glued to the news feeds and monitoring for any potential movements/escalations in the US-Iranian conflict.
Outside of that, we have the following events marked on our calendar:
- June CB Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday – a vibe check with consumers (happy consumers = more spending = a healthier economy).
- Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Tuesday/Wednesday – speculators will comb Powell’s speech for any hints on when/if he plans to cut rates. Our guess is he will remain vague and tight-lipped.
- US Q1 2025 GDP data – Thursday – did the US economy shrink or expand in Q1? This data will give us the answer.
- May PCE Inflation data – Friday – this is where we learn how much everyday goods went up/down in price throughout May.
2/ Token unlocks 🔓
If you’re a $BLAST holder: watch out below! They’re unlocking ~35% of their supply on Thursday.
3/ Conferences & meetups 🤝
- We’re hosting a meetup tonight in Brooklyn
- The Permissionless Conference (use code MILK100 for $100 off) kicks off tomorrow in New York (24-26 June)
- Coming to Permissionless? Why not check out Solana Solstice (25-27 June) in NYC
4/ Podcasts 🎙️
We’re kicking the week off with a double header!
Today, the debut episode of Milk Road Degen drops (5 Tokens Refusing to Die), plus Tether’s co-founder William E Quigley joins us on The Milk Road Show 👇
YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts
And if that ain’t enough, we’ve got Akshat Vaidya, Head of Investment at Maelstrom (an investment fund he co-founded with Arthur Hayes) joining us on Thursday.
Mark your calendars and brace for potential volatility.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
New life insurance hack! We dropped an article on how Meanwhile’s life insurance actually lets you benefit from your policy while you’re still alive.*
10 consecutive weeks of inflows. Tariffs? Israel-Iran conflict? Fed delaying rate cuts? None of that is slowing down the buying.
Don’t call him the “Mr. Saylor of ETH”. Joe Lubin explains in his own words why stockpiling $ETH is different than $BTC. - DL News
Another IPO incoming? Reports suggest that crypto exchange OKX is looking to go public in the US.
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*this is sponsored content. **this is partner content.
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