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GM. This is Milk Road. The answer to your co-workers’ question: “How do you know so much about crypto?”
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ The US election’s impact on your crypto bags
- ✍️ What to watch for this month
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: The Truth About Launching a Crypto Token & Building on Base w/ Talent Protocol’s CEO
- 🍪 Michigan pension fund reveals $10M in Ethereum ETF holdings
Prices as of 2:00PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index
THE US ELECTION’S IMPACT ON YOUR CRYPTO BAGS 🥊
Welcome to Milk Man Meditation, where we mash the metaphorical ‘zoom out’ button, and calm any worries you might have about the current crypto market.
Today’s topic: The US Presidential Election and its effect on your bags.
We’ll be combing through a few common statements/sentiments that we’ve seen floating around Crypto Twitter, and knocking them back down to size.
Ok, deep breath in through your nose…and out through your mouth.
Goooonnnnng. Let’s begin.
1/ “The crypto market tends to dip in the run up to US elections”
Sure, there’s historical data to back that up.
2016 saw a 10.2% dip, 2020 saw a 6.1% dip, and so far in 2024 we’ve seen a 6.3% dip.
…but those kinds of dips ain’t out of the ordinary – hell, they’ll happen for seemingly no reason on any given day/week.
So giving the current dip any extra oxygen just ‘cause there’s an election tomorrow is unnecessary. It’s par for the course in crypto.
2/ “The result of the election will end in either a market boom, or bust”
Market’s love certainty above any one candidate.
Once the elections are behind us, the next four years come into clearer view, and investors can get to allocating.
Point is: Bitcoin (and the broader crypto market) doesn’t care who’s president in the long run. Red? Blue? Purple? History tells us we’re headed up and to the right either way.
3/ “Trump/Harris [pick whoever you don’t want to see win] is going to be terrible for the economy”
Republicans and Democrats disagree on many things – perhaps now more than ever – so how do we unite them and bring the country closer together?
(Sh*t dude, don’t ask us!)
…idk, maybe look for a shared passion between the two sides and work backwards from there? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
One thing we know for sure is both sides LOVE printing money. 👇
Which sucks for the US’ debt obligations, but actually works out in favor of crypto.
Why? ‘Cause a chunk of this newly printed money tends to find its way into crypto assets – many of which have fixed supplies or low/predictable rates of inflation.
Translation: Money printing devalues the US dollar, but increases the value of scarce assets (like crypto) over time.
And regardless of who wins – the money printer is set to go brrrr…
Goooonnnnng. Ok, in your own time, you can now open your eyes and come back to the present moment.
Feeling better? Good.
Now, a quick heads up before we close this article out. While the market’s ‘moment of certainty’ is set to arrive tomorrow – it’s not guaranteed.
Tight elections can take days to be officially confirmed.
So whether we find out tomorrow, or sometime this weekend – if you find yourself wanting to hit the panic button, just follow this process:
Zoom out → zen out → and remember…
In the long run, crypto tends to win either way. 🏆
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WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS MONTH 📅
November is coming in ab-so-lute-ly swinging with a bunch of potentially MASSIVE market moving events – in just the first week!
But before we look forward, let’s take a look back at October, to gauge our current momentum…
1/ A lookback at October ⏪
Everyone was gearing up for ‘UPtober’ (us included) – but did we get there in the end?
Spoiler: Yes. Yes, we did. (Though the gains weren’t as crazy as we all expected).
In October, we saw the following:
- +10.76% for $BTC, and +9.81% for the entire crypto sector
- The US Bitcoin ETFs bought 5.83 times more $BTC than were mined in October!
- This increased demand and constricted supply no doubt helped the total crypto market cap to break its 8 month-long descending channel (indicating a long-awaited trend reversal)
2/ Macro 📊
Ok, now: looking forward to November.
This week alone we have two massive market moving macro events:
- The US Elections - Tuesday, Nov 5th We’ve already covered this in our first article, so in the spirit of efficiency, let’s move straight on to…
- Rate Cuts - Thursday, Nov 7th The market consensus right now is that we’re going to get a 0.25% cut this coming Thursday. While smaller than September’s cut of 0.50%, such a cut would still help to relieve stress on the US market in the long term. Money becomes cheaper to borrow → the cost of servicing existing debt goes down → people/businesses have more money to spend → (in theory) crypto/the economy as a whole grows as a result of this increased spending.
The cherry on top of all of this?
Historically, Bitcoin has seen an average return of +42.88% in November.
If history repeats itself this year, we’re looking at a $100k Bitcoin by the end of the month!
Fingers, toes, eyes: crossed
3/ Token Unlocks 🔓
Last month we saw a milk-curdling $5.39B worth of token’s unlocked! (*cough cough* thanks Celestia)
Good news is, we’re getting a bit of a breather this month, with $2.62B worth of unlocks:
Less unlocks = less potential sell pressure in the crypto market.
4/ Earnings 💰
This week we have earnings reports from:
- Franklin Templeton (managers of the $EZBC Bitcoin ETF)
- Arm (designers of ARM semiconductor architecture used in many of our devices)
- Qualcomm (creators of semiconductors, software and services related to wireless tech)
- Sony (really hoping there’s no explanation needed here…)
But November 20th is where it’s really at! That’s when the biggest dog in the yard reports its earnings.
We are referring of course to Nvidia ($NVDA) – the mac-daddy of the AI industry. Keep your eyes peeled!
5/ Podcasts 🎙️
This month The Milk Road Show continues its all-gas, no brakes, head-first run into the ever-evolving world of crypto, with appearances from:
- Daren Matsuoka – Data scientist at a16z – covering the state of crypto in 2024
- Ryan Wyatt – Chief Growth Officer at Optimism – covering the state of L2’s and the superchain endgame
- Farokh – Host of Rug Radio and Co-Founder/President of DASTAN – for a free flowing conversation on anything/everything crypto in 2024/2025
Do not – I repeat – DO NOT miss these episodes!
Ok, that’s November in a nutshell – but as always, we’ll be here day-in/day-out, diving deeper into everything you need to know as the month unfolds!
See you on the road.
Milk Man, out! 🫳🎤
KEEP GETTING REKT BY THE MARKET? THIS WILL HELP FIX THAT 🫡
If you’ve ever tried to cross a busy street in Vietnam, you’ll know there’s an art to it. 👇
Your initial instinct is to pick the perfect time and move as quickly as humanly possible.
The real knack is moving slowly/calmly – this way, the cars and scooters have a chance to see you and slow down. The tough part is having conviction in that decision.
Same goes for crypto markets. We all fantasize about moving fast – going all in at the market bottom, and selling at its top … but that’s almost impossible to pull off.
The trick is to calmly move into particular assets within a rough time frame, through each season of the Business Cycle.
If you don’t know what the Business Cycle is – that’s ok!
We’ve created a free guide, called “How To Build A Crypto Portfolio in 2024”, which will walk you through everything you need to know – so you can allocate with confidence.
Just click below → leave your email → and we’ll send you the full guide 😊
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
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How 'Off the Grid' could impact the future of blockchain games. A blockchain game with real mainstream success? (Where’s Ashton? Are we getting Punk’d?) Nope. It’s real, and it’s proving to other game makers that there’s an audience for web3 games!
Three reasons why retail is sitting out the Bitcoin rally. Retail interest in crypto is still muted despite Bitcoin’s rally. Will retail make a late entry into the market this cycle? - DL News.
State of Michigan’s state pension fund discloses over $10 million worth of Ethereum ETF holdings. Holy sh*t! Is…is it happening?? Are we seeing the first signs of $ETH ETF adoption from the legacy financial world? Let’s hope so.
SEC plans legal action against Immutable. Just hours after Immutable had its initial meeting with the SEC, the agency sent them a Wells Notice (aka: a "we're about to sue you notice"). Not very chill, Gary. *this is sponsored content
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
