🥛 Why Coinbase ripped 21% last night 🔥

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GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that should come with a health warning: “makes crypto addictive”.

Here’s what we got for you today:

✍️ Coinbase is getting added to the S&P 500
✍️ CPI: down → $BTC: up?
🥛 Milk Road PRO Portfolio updates
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: How Smart Bitcoin Investors Pay Less Tax & Never Sell w/ Zac Townsend
🍪 2025 is the year of crypto M&A

Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Click here for our Fear & Greed Index.

COINBASE IS SET TO HIT THE S&P 500! 🔥

Coinbase ($COIN) will soon be added to the S&P 500 – aka: a list of 500 of the top companies in the U.S.

Getting invited to this very exclusive club means:

~$15B may soon be automatically allocated to $COIN
Historical precedent says the stock should move up 3-8% in the short term
Your frumpy uncle who hates crypto & loves index funds will be forced to allocate to $COIN

Here's what we’re basing all of that on…

1/ Bitwise predicts a $15B allocation

The S&P 500 currently has ~$10T allocated to it from a range of funds, investors, financial products, etc. that are mandated to sink cash into any S&P-listed company.

Of that $10T, Bitwise predicts ~0.15% (or $15B) will be allocated to $COIN.

Source: Bitwise

For context: a $15B allocation is the equivalent of 30% of Coinbase’s pre-announcement market cap (~$50B)!

2/ Coinbase is already outpacing historical precedent

If you look at every company that has ever been added to the S&P 500 – you’ll get a vague, hand-wavey figure that says companies may expect to increase ~3-8% shortly after being added…

But Coinbase is already waaaay ahead of that average. Since the announcement last night, $COIN is already up ~21.5% since the market closed yesterday.

Source: TradingView

3/ Your friends, neighbors, and family are about to own a piece of Coinbase

Just about every pension fund, 401(k) and 401(k)-equivalent in the western world allocates a portion of its holdings to the S&P 500.

Which means just about everyone you know will soon own a piece of Coinbase by proxy of their retirement fund.

(Yes, even my uncle, Steve “Bitcoin is a scam” Cassar. He cannot avoid it.)

Now here’s a detail that puts a nice big bow on all of this…

If a stock gets added to the S&P 500, it means another company needs to be removed – and the stock that Coinbase bumped from the list in order to join the S&P?

Discover (a TradFi payments company).

It’s official: crypto is replacing traditional payments.

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CPI: DOWN → $BTC: UP? 📈

Not the sort of person that hears “CPI inflation data just dropped” and gets excited?

Lemme see if I can change that…

April’s CPI data just dropped – and guess what: over the past year, the cost of ‘stuff’ hasn’t increased as rapidly as everyone was expecting it to.

(Not crazy-exciting just yet, but bear with me…I’m working up to something.)

Source: @IntoCryptoVerse

☝️ This new data gives Fed Chair Jerome Powell one more (small, but welcomed) excuse to start cutting rates.

And when rates get cut → loan/credit repayments become cheaper → making loans more accessible → allowing more fresh cash to enter the global economy → boosting asset prices.

Or to put it another way: when financial conditions ‘ease’, more cash is thrown into assets.

Cool. What the hell does that have to do with crypto?

(Glad I asked.)

When financial conditions ease – thanks not only to lowered rates, but also a weaker US dollar, and lowered commodity prices (which we’re also seeing signs of) – that ‘easing’ is reflected in Bitcoin’s price ~3 months later.

I.e. If financial conditions ease → $BTC will be more valuable three months down the road.

Alright, now – here’s the ‘Hell yeah! Who wants a running chest bump?’ moment…

Check out this chart:

Source: @RealVision

See what it’s hinting at? (Financial conditions ease = green line go up.)

If the correlation shown above holds up – this chart is telling us to expect $150k+ Bitcoin as soon as AUGUST!

…and if a potential 50%+ pump in the span of 12 weeks doesn’t get you excited, I honestly don’t know what will.

Now, for those of you that are on my level:

That running chest bump…how about it?

MILK ROAD PRO PORTFOLIO UPDATES 📊

The crypto market is absolutely crushing it, and yes, our portfolio is part of the celebration — gains are rolling in across the board!

The potential pullback we warned about last week is still on the table, but for now the market's alive with renewed optimism.

So, what about our favorite altcoin positions? Will we go more risk-on and buy more app tokens?

We’re answering exactly that in this week’s Milk Road PRO Portfolio update!

Go PRO and keep scrolling to find out. 👇

Disclosure: We are not a day trading portfolio so don’t expect a high volume of trades. Read our “How To Build a Crypto Portfolio” report to learn more about our portfolio strategy.

Portfolio performance 📈

The Milk Road PRO Portfolio saw a strong increase over the past 7 days. Our portfolio value is at $145.6K, up 17.4% since last week.

Portfolio prices are updated daily at 6:00 AM ET.

The latest CPI inflation data numbers came in at 2.3% annualized (below the 2.4% forecast), and that's exactly what we wanted to see. Even better: the landmark U.S.-China trade deal finalized this week is removing major friction points. This explains why we're seeing the beginnings of what could be a serious altcoin season.

After last week's brief correction, the explosive recovery for Bitcoin and altcoins (especially Ethereum, DeFi, Memecoins and AI-driven tokens) feels like validation. Our strategy remains disciplined: steady accumulation while there’s panic in the market and no bold moves for now. No need to get reckless when the trend is your friend.

Portfolio changes 👀

The Milk Road PRO Portfolio is available for Milk Road PRO members only.

Already a PRO member? Log in here.

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Full access to the Milk Road PRO Portfolio, our yield strategies & weekly updates to see what we’re actively investing in 👆
Unlimited access to the Milk Road PRO Token Center with token ratings and insights. 🔓
Weekly “Where Are We In The Cycle?” indicators to help you spot the bull market top before it’s too late 📈
Weekly reports that help you spot early trends, navigate the markets by limiting risk & catch those sweet cha-ching moments 💰
Access to the PRO Community, where the Milk Road crew & 1000s of fellow PROs talk crypto. Don’t miss the monthly live events! 🫂
Half Off the Crypto Investing Masterclass 📚️