Why SPCX fair value could reach $427 with Elon premium

GM. This is Milk Road Stocks, the newsletter that just realized there’s a whole stock market outside of AI.

Yep, Milk Road AI is now Milk Road Stocks.

AI is still a massive part of what we cover, but our world has expanded into memory, robotics, space, energy, and the biggest opportunities across the market. So we figured our name should too.

New name. Bigger playground.

Today, we’re breaking down core reasons why SpaceX still has plenty of room to run.

First, a quick detour from rockets to private markets.

On Sept 23, Milk Road's Martin sits down with Alumni Ventures to talk about blockchain and private markets. Save your free seat here.

THREE REASONS WHY SPACEX STILL HAS LEGS 🚀

A cool nugget I came across today:

SpaceX is up about 39% since its low and has climbed back above its $135 IPO price.

There was lots of chatter about it falling below $100 but our Head of Research, Kyle, remained bullish on this stock.

Here are his main points on SpaceX:

1. The current valuation may be too low

SpaceX is targeting roughly $100B in annualized revenue by the end of 2026. Elon himself said they'll "easily hit $100B by year end if they do nothing else."

Based on that, Kyle estimates a fair value of roughly $131–$244 per share.

Historically, Elon-linked companies have also traded at a 40-75% premium which could push that range to $183–$427.

Source: @KyleReidhead

2. The 2027 bull case could be even bigger

A recent SemiAnalysis report projects SpaceX could reach a $305B annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2027.

Source: @MilkRoadStocks

That number comes from one thing: compute.

SpaceX is attempting to add 8.6 GW of AI infrastructure in the next 16 months. The previous record was AWS at 3.8 GW in a year. So, SpaceX is essentially trying to double that pace.

Elon values AI compute at $30-$50 per watt per year. At 10 GW, that's $300-$500B in annual revenue from compute alone.

Source: @KyleReidhead

3. The biggest risk is still the unlocks

The first lockup tranche (on August 6th) hit the market with little visible impact.

But more unlocks are coming through December which could create selling pressure and volatility.

Source: @MilkRoadStocks

The next big unlock event will come in November when their earnings release unlocks another 28%. By Day 180, 93% of early-release shares will have hit the market.

That creates real volatility throughout the year so keep an eye out for this.

Milk Road PRO members got the call to buy SPCX at $115 in early August when most of the market was calling for it to fall below $100.

They're now up 25% on that position.