GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that comes in so hot you'll need asbestos gloves to handle it.
Hereβs a taste of this weekβs menu:
- π₯ Crypto isnβt invited to this bull run.
- π₯΅ BTCβs security model has an expiration date.
- πΆοΈ AI is going to destroy more jobs than it creates.
On Sept 23, Milk Road's Martin sits down with Alumni Ventures to talk about blockchain and private markets. Save your free seat here.
HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK π₯
Crypto is not invited to this bull market π«
Kyle (Co-owner at Milk Road) recently laid out his "everything bull market" thesis, and it stings a little if you're crypto native.
He says the setup is real, a Goldilocks macro backdrop plus AI ROI at every layer of the stack, but he doesnβt think crypto gets to participate in it yet.
Every layer from infrastructure to models to applications is printing profit, and Kyle's telling people to stay low on cash and buy the dips while that holds.
He says crypto will eventually get pulled along too, it just wonβt be first in line.
Ouch!
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
Bitcoin's security model has an expiration date π
Matt Crosby (Bitcoin Magazine) is a major Bitcoin bull, but he isnβt a blind follower.
He just hit us with a long-term bear case on Bitcoin, pointing out that Bitcoin's fee revenue just hit its lowest yearly average since 2011, and miners like Riot are already pivoting to AI data infrastructure instead.
Matt's concern is that as block subsidy trends toward zero, fees alone won't be enough to keep miners securing the network, which opens the door to centralization risk or even a nation-state attack down the line.
Yikes!
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
AI is going to destroy more jobs than it creates π¬
M0xt (our Lead Analyst here at Milk Road) isnβt buying the "AI creates new jobs" narrative that's become consensus on the show.
He's looking at agent labor costs sitting at $6 to $8 an hour, cheaper than outsourcing to India, and a July jobs report that came in negative when the market expected 80,000 new jobs.
M0xtβs base case for when he thinks the real disruption starts showing up in the data is 2027 - and he thinks the market panics fast once it hits.
His plan for now is to keep holding the AI winners and get defensive only once that narrative actually breaks.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
FREE SEMINAR ON BLOCKCHAIN & PRIVATE MARKETS
Is VC capital still flowing into crypto or has AI taken it all?
Where is venture capital actually deploying across crypto and fintech right now?
Join Sophia Zhao (Partner at Alumni Ventures) and Martin from Milk Road for a live fireside conversation covering:
- Where capital is moving across blockchain and fintech
- What the next generation of blockchain companies are actually building
- How accredited investors can get exposure to private markets
The best part? Itβs completely free to attend and takes just one hour.
HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK (P2) π₯
Self-custody might not be for everyone anymore π
Rob (Founder & Host of Digital Asset News) came in hot on the recent wave of hardware wallet hacks, Coldcard, Trezor, Safepal, that all hit within weeks of each other.
Rob says he's done being "that guy" who has to tell his wife the Lazarus Group wiped out the family's life savings, so now he splits everything across hardware wallets, Coinbase Prime custody, and ETFs instead of going all in on self-custody.
He's also skeptical the CLARITY Act does anything soon, calling the White House's crypto meeting "a posturing type of thing" since Democrats won't hand Trump a midterm-year win.
Rob's approach: diversify custody the same way you'd diversify a portfolio, because nobody's coming to save your bag if it gets drained.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
Figure just out-earned every S&P 500 company except Nvidia and Micron π
M0xt broke down Figure's Q2 print and the number that stood out was brutal for the bears.
Figure's combination of 95% revenue growth and 55% EBITDA margins puts its Rule of 40 score around 168, which M0xt says beats literally every company in the S&P 500 outside of Nvidia and Micron.
He's dismissing the falling take rate as a non-issue, since it's just a byproduct of third parties now originating 65% of loans through Figure Connect instead of Figure's own balance sheet.
Heβs holding for another quarter or two, with Wall Street's median target sitting near $50 against a $30 stock price at the time of the interview.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
HEADS UP: PRO'S PRICE GOES UP AUG 26 π₯
Milk Road PRO used to be a paid newsletter with one portfolio attached.
Now it's a full platform. Five analysts running real-time portfolios, with every position, trade, and piece of reasoning out in the open, with live notifications to keep you in the know.
Melvin's portfolio is up 45% since he launched it in February.
If you'd put $10,000 behind his moves, you'd be sitting on about $4,500 in gains.
Five months of PRO cost $125 over that same stretch.
(Is there a better ROI on any investment right now??)
Next Wednesday, on August 26, PRO goes from $25/month to $39/month, and annual goes from $250 to $299.
Join before midnight ET on August 25 and you'll keep today's price for as long as you're a member.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD πͺ
Scott Melker: People saying this is the worst bear market yet have the shortest memories imaginable.
Matt Crosby: Most people using the realized price as a buy signal are working with a flawed number.
Phwoar! Anthropic is targeting the largest IPO in history, trying to beat SpaceX's $75B raise.
MILKY MEMES π€£
