🥛 Trump takes CEOs to China 🇨🇳

GM. This is Milk Road Macro, the newsletter that wonders if Trump made all the CEOs eat McDonald’s on Air Force One.

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

✍️ Trump’s China entourage.
✍️ IEA: Running on fumes.
🎙️ The Milk Road Macro Show: Matthew Piepenburg: “This Is The End Of Dollar Hegemony”.
🍪 CPI and PPI run hot.

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TRUMP’S CHINA ENTOURAGE

President Trump has touched down in Beijing for a two-day summit with Xi Jinping, and he didn't go alone. He brought a delegation of 16 CEOs with a combined net worth of over $1T.

Source: Bloomberg

The roster: Leading the pack are "Tim Apple" (Cook), Elon Musk (Tesla), and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg. Notably, Nvidia's Jensen Huang was a last-minute addition to Air Force One after a personal invite from the President.

Art of the deal: The White House is hunting for "blockbuster" commercial agreements to show off before the midterms. Boeing is reportedly chasing an order for up to 500 jets, which would be the largest airplane order in history.

Milk Road take: This isn't just a "field trip." It’s a tactical truce. Trump wants symbolic wins (Boeing orders and soy purchases) to lower the temperature on the trade war while the U.S. is distracted by the conflict in Iran.

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IEA: RUNNING ON FUMES

The International Energy Agency (IEA) just dropped its May report, and it reads like a thriller novel. They warned that global oil inventories are being exhausted at an "unprecedented" pace.

Source: IEA

The damage: The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively choked for over 10 weeks. Global stocks plummeted by 117M barrels in April alone. Even with a massive 400-million-barrel emergency release from member states, the IEA says buffers are shrinking fast.

The risk: We’re entering the peak summer travel season with a structural deficit that "alternative suppliers cannot bridge". Brent is currently $106, but analysts warn that if inventories don't stabilize, we could see future price spikes that "herald a cycle killer".

Milk Road take: Energy markets operate on the assumption that pipes and tankers always work. That assumption has collapsed. We are now in a regime where physical scarcity, not just paper trading, determines the price.

Wrapping up

The Fed has a new Chairman.

Inflation prints are higher than analyst estimates.

We’re waiting to see what deals Trump announces in China.

The energy crisis is getting serious.

And the S&P keeps making new all-time highs.

Enjoy the bull run while it lasts!

THE END OF DOLLAR HEGEMONY 🪙

In today's episode, we sat down with Matthew Piepenburg, partner at von Greyerz AG, to talk about the cracks forming in the petrodollar system and why gold keeps breaking records. He lays out how geopolitics, debt, and a constrained Fed are reshaping the global monetary order.

Here's what you'll hear:

Why the Strait of Hormuz tensions are a direct threat to the petrodollar and decades of forced dollar demand.
How 2022's reserve freezes accelerated de-dollarization, with ~20% of oil now trading outside USD by 2023.
Why the Fed can't pull a Volcker with $40T in debt, pointing to negative real rates and quiet debt monetization.
Matthew's gold thesis: central banks are loading up, and physical bullion in stable jurisdictions beats paper claims.

Tap in and hear the full breakdown 👇