GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that makes you the MVP of every crypto conversation.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ Why our lead analyst sold ETH.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Crypto Is In A Bear Market… So Why Aren’t ETF Investors Selling? w/ James Seyffart.
- 🍪 Be careful in this upcoming IPO season…
Arc is an open Layer-1 blockchain built for real-world financial applications. Public testnet is live, App Kits are here, and mainnet is getting closer. Start building on Arc.
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WHY OUR LEAD ANALYST JUST SOLD ALL OF HIS ETH 👋
This week, our lead crypto analyst (M0xt) sold ETH.
As in, the entire position.
If you're a Milk Road PRO member, this trade already hit your live feed, alongside the rest of the team's moves and full portfolios.
For everyone else - here’s what you missed:
M0xt's reasoning starts by pulling apart two things most people treat as one.
Ethereum the network is one thing. ETH the token is another.
He's still bullish on the network. But the token? Not so much.
In his eyes, Ethereum is still the best public blockchain out there - and the tech just keeps getting better.
But a network can win while its token goes nowhere, and those are two separate bets.
M0xt’s first concern is about people…
The Ethereum Foundation has been losing top talent lately.
M0xt's view: when a big fund does its homework before buying ETH, a deep bench of elite talent is a green light.
Thin that bench out, and one of the reasons serious money felt comfortable buying ETH starts to fade.
That's his lighter concern, though. His bigger one comes down to price.
ETH is down more than 60% from its 2025 high near $5,000.
With a stock, a drop like that on a healthy business is M0xt's cue to back up the truck. He knows what the company is worth, so a cheaper price just means a better deal.
ETH hands him no such anchor. Nobody can tell you what a fair price for it actually is, so a 60%+ fall gives him no edge and no reason to add.
He's open to buying back - but only on one condition…
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WHY OUR LEAD ANALYST JUST SOLD ALL OF HIS ETH (P2) 👋
Right now most people value ETH like a company, using the fees the network earns from activity.
M0xt wants ETH priced as money - similar to how gold and Bitcoin get prized for being scarce and trusted, instead of for the amount of cash they spit out.
He's also left himself a hedge…
If Ethereum speeds up its roadmap and keeps shipping upgrades, he thinks interest in the token could come back.
The day the market starts treating ETH as a ‘better version of Bitcoin,’ he buys back in.
That's one read of the ETH situation...
Within the same analyst team, staring at the same facts, our lead macro analyst John Gillen landed on the exact opposite call.
John hasn't sold a single ETH token - he's looking to stack n’ stake as much as he possibly can over time.
We ran through John's full case in last Friday's edition, so I'll keep this short…
John's view is binary:
Either this whole asset class grows into the tens or hundreds of trillions of dollars, or it goes to zero. He sees no world where ETH just sits at $200-300B in total value forever.
And from the numbers he’s seeing, the arrow points up:
- Network use is near record highs.
- Fees are near record lows.
- The staking queue keeps getting longer.
- The Foundation is still shipping upgrades.
Most of the gloom, he reckons, is just fatigue after a long stretch of ETH lagging everything else in crypto.
Two smart cookies… on the same analyst team… looking at the same facts… each with opposing calls.
We don't have one, unified in-house answer on this - so we’re going to need your help in balancing things out. 👇
Whose view do you side with?
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
There is one big problem with Bitcoin: Payments. We just released a review on GoBTC that’s making Bitcoin easier to use for everyday payments.*
Brian Armstrong: Crypto started like HTTP - totally transparent, everything on a public ledger. Now it needs to become HTTPS (private).
Reality check: Be careful in this upcoming IPO season… Year-1 average drawdown on IPOs = 55%. Year-1 median drawdown = 54%.
Google just raised $80B in equity: the largest equity offering in the history of profitable technology companies.
DeFi Saver turns Aave v4 into a trading bot for your loans: Stop losses, take profits, and one-click loan migration - we broke down the pros, cons, and fees so you don't have to.*
*this is sponsored content.
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