GM. This is Milk Road, the daily newsletter that's like finding cash in an old jacket pocket, but every afternoon.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ It’s a big 24hrs for markets.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: The Biggest Bullish Signal in Crypto Right Now.
- 🍪 Onchain data for Bitcoin is basically broken as a signal now...
Securitize is the platform institutions trust to tokenize their assets onchain. See what nine years of regulated tokenization looks like.
Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko.
IT’S A BIG 24 HRS FOR MARKETS 👀
Everyone spent this morning waiting for the Fed’s 2pm rate announcement.
The Fed held at 3.50-3.75%, the fifth meeting running.
Melvin (our AI analyst) and Kyle (our Head of Research) predicted the hold, along with the majority of the market, well before it was announced…
But the Fed meeting wasn’t today's main event.
The numbers that likely set the next month of trading land after the closing bell, with Meta reporting at 4:30pm ET, and Microsoft at 5:30pm.
Alphabet (aka: Google) ran a similar experiment last week, and it went, er, badly…
The numbers from the report:
- Revenue up 24% to $199.7B.
- Cloud revenue up 82% (the Street wanted 67%).
- Backlog up to $514B.
A neat n’ tidy beat of expectations... yet the stock fell more than 5%.
It fell on Google’s projected CapEx - i.e. the money it plans to spend building physical things like data centers and chips. Alphabet raised that number again, and free cash flow (the cash left over once you've paid for it all) went negative for the first time in the company’s history.
Then this morning, another tech darling got hit.
SK Hynix posted the biggest quarter in its history:
- Revenue up 257%.
- Profit up 557%.
- 76% margins.
- Memory chip prices up 30% in one quarter, storage up more than 50%.
Stock down 9%.
M0xt's read: the record quarter missed lofty estimates by about 6%, and the shortfall was capacity, not demand. They couldn’t physically make enough chips to hit the number.
Two of the best prints of the year, and the market sold off as a result.
Which means tonight’s revenue lines for Meta and Microsoft are already priced in.
There's exactly one number on each call that decides what happens next...
THE RAILS BEHIND BLACKROCK'S ONCHAIN FUND
Assets still run on decades-old infrastructure:
Slow settlement, walled access, paperwork everywhere.
Tokenization fixes that but who’s actually doing it at an institutional scale?
With nearly nine years in the business, Securitize has become the platform institutions trust to bring assets onchain.
Here's why it stands out:
- BlackRock, Morgan Stanley & ARK Invest have all invested in Securitize
- NYSE, VanEck & BNY have chosen Securitize to tokenize their stocks.
- The only public pure-play in tokenization infrastructure
This isn't a crypto project waiting for TradFi to catch up. It's the regulated bridge that the largest asset managers in the world already build on.
See what nine years of regulated tokenization looks like.
GOOD NUMBERS KEEP GETTING SOLD (P2) 📉
Let’s look at what to expect for each of Meta and Microsoft…
1. Meta, 4:30pm ET.
The Street wants roughly $60.2B in revenue and about $7.20 in earnings per share (EPS).
Ignore both. Revenue is currently growing around 27% while earnings per share grow around 1% - the difference is CapEx.
Full-year guidance already sits at $125-145B (for one company), so anything over $40B for the quarter, or another raise, and Meta likely gets the Alphabet treatment.
2. Microsoft, 5:30pm ET.
Consensus is roughly $87.7B in revenue and $4.24 EPS, with Azure (their cloud business) guided at 39-40%.
The live wire here is FY2027 CapEx, which the Street expects to land near $255-260B.
They've already committed ~$190B for calendar 2026, so that's another 35% on a number nobody was comfortable with.
And this (right here) is where this article stops being a stock story.
Big tech CapEx is running near $725B combined this year, so if either call spooks the market tonight, the selling doesn't politely stop at the Nasdaq's door…
BTC is sitting on either side of $64k, still in fear territory, holding a $60-66k range that's been intact for weeks.
It shrugged off Korea's chip crash yesterday, but a broad U.S. tech selloff is a different animal, and crypto often struggles to sit those out.
On top of that…
We get GDP and June PCE (the inflation number the Fed watches) tomorrow morning - so tonight's reaction will get a second test before the week is out.
Your homework for the next 24hrs: hold on to your butts.
Btw - Melvin and Kyle are both buying this selloff rather than waiting it out. Every trade and the reasoning behind it sits inside Milk Road PRO, and you can try it for a buck for 7 days here.
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Get 15% off with code “MILKRO_15.” The European Blockchain Convention is back in Barcelona on September 16-17.**
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See what nine years of regulated tokenization looks like.
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