GM. This is Milk Road, your daily direct download of everything you need to know in crypto.
Here’s what we got for you today:
- ✍️ What to look out for this week
- ✍️ The U.S. to buy 1M BTC?
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitcoin Has All the Good News… So Why Isn’t It Going Up? w/ Scott Melker
- 🍪 AI's biggest play yet
Chainlink is the industry-standard oracle platform bringing the capital markets onchain, and the market leader powering the majority of decentralized finance. Learn more about Chainlink.
Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. Trade today with Milk Road Swap.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK 📆
All that economic data we missed out on when the U.S. government shut down?
It’s back. With a vengeance!
Here’s everything we’re looking at this week…
1. Macro 🌎
This is what’s brewing in the Macro world:
- October Retail Sales data – Tuesday – A health check on retail spending in the first month of Q4
- November Jobs Report – Tuesday – Did unemployment rise, fall, or stay flat last month?
- November CPI Inflation data – Thursday – A narrow view of inflation in November
- October PCE Inflation data – Friday – A broad view of inflation in October (note: PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric over CPI)
- November Existing Home Sales data – Friday – Checking in on the health of the U.S. housing market
- MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday – A vibe check with consumers
- Bank Of Japan (BOJ) rate decision – Friday – will the BOJ hike rates as expected?
The two key releases we’re watching this week are…
The November Jobs Report: if unemployment is shown to be rising at a solid clip, it will likely increase the chance of further rate cuts (which are typically bullish for crypto).
The Bank Of Japan’s rate decision: right now, all signs point towards a hike of 0.25%. 👇
This could have a negative effect on crypto (and risk assets in general.)
For years now, investors have been borrowing money in Japan (where interest rates were near zero) in order to invest in high-growth assets like U.S. tech stocks and/or crypto.
But if the BOJ raises rates, borrowing Yen will become more expensive and investors will be forced to sell their U.S. stocks and crypto to pay back their Yen-based loans.
Good news is – this rate hike has been expected since the start of the month, so if/when it happens, the effects should (hopefully) be minimal as the market has likely priced it in already.
Subscribe to our free Milk Road Macro newsletter to get a closer look at each event as it unfolds.
2. Charts 📈
Another weekly candle closed last night on the Bitcoin chart, and it managed to hold within its ascending channel, meaning BTC’s upward trend is holding on the weekly!
(For now.)
Ok… so wen reversal?
The jury’s still out, but crypto asset flows just notched their third week of positive net-flows, hinting that risk appetite could slowly be recovering/rebuilding (we love to see it)!
3. Podcasts & PRO AMAs 🎙️
Another week, another stellar lineup of guests across the Milk Road podcast ecosystem!
Here's who's joining us this week:
- Mon: Scott Melker – Aka: The Wolf Of All Streets – Milk Road Daily
- Tue: Julio Moreno – Head of Research at CryptoQuant – Milk Road Daily
- Wed: Santi – Co-host of Blockworks’ Empire podcast – Milk Road Daily
- Wed: Dan Ives – Global Head of Tech Research at Wedbush – Milk Road AI
- Thu: John D’Agostino – Head Of Strategy @ Coinbase Institutional – Milk Road Daily
As for PRO AMAs, we’ve got a double header for you:
If you have a burning question for our NOPs (Nerds On Payroll), but are not yet subscribed to PRO – you can fix that here.
Alright, that’s everything to watch for this week.
Mark your calendars & set your alarms. 🤝
THE UNIVERSAL LANGUAGE OF FINANCE
Every market speaks a different language.
But they all understand Chainlink.
This is how $867 trillion in assets move onchain.
Chainlink’s latest report outlines why Wall Street is adopting their technology as the industry-standard oracle platform.
See why the world’s largest financial institutions are choosing Chainlink.
DEFINITION DERBY: THE BITCOIN ACT 📚
There’s been an uptick in chatter around The Bitcoin Act in recent weeks, so let’s dig in…
- What is it?
- How will it work?
- What will it take to pass?
Here’s everything you need to know:
1. What is it? 🤨
In short, this:
And once it’s all been bought, the government will have to hold it for a minimum of 20yrs.
2. How will it work? 💰
(I.e. Who’s going to pay for it?)
The proposed funding avenues currently look like this:
- Reprice gold: A whole bunch of the U.S.' gold certificates are currently valued using 1970’s prices ($42.22 per ounce). If the U.S. were to reprice them at today’s ~$4,300, they could unlock $1T+ worth of spending money.
- Pull cash from the Fed Reserve’s surplus: Aka, pull from the Fed’s savings account.
- Take from the Fed’s earnings: The Federal Reserve earns interest on its government debt holdings, and the Bitcoin Act proposes to use some of that cash to buy BTC.
3. What will it take to pass? 🏛️
In order to become law, The Bitcoin Act needs to pass the Senate Banking Committee, the full Senate, the House Financial Services Committee, and the President's desk.
No small feat.
Best case scenario if it passes?
It would likely be huge for investors – less so for the U.S. itself.
‘Cause here's the thing…
Let's say the government buys a million Bitcoin over 5 years at an average of $100k per BTC for a total of $100B → and this buy-pressure/supply restriction helps to push BTC to $1M over 20yrs.
That 10x in value would mean a WHOLE lot to most investors…
But for the U.S. government (who would have turned their $100B investment into $1T+) – that trillion in change would only cover a year's worth of its current-day interest payments.
Hell – even if BTC 100x’d over the 20yr period, the investment would still only cover 10yrs worth of the U.S.’ interest payments at current rates.
Meaning getting Congress to buy into the idea of The Bitcoin Act doubling as a solution to the U.S.’ debt problem could be a long shot.
Either way, we’re crossing our fingers, toes, and eyes in hopes that it eventually passes.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Why can everyone still see my wallet balance? That’s exactly what Zama is trying to fix by adding a privacy layer to existing chains.*
Mooooar tokenization! JPMorgan is launching a new money market fund on ETH.
AI's biggest play yet: SpaceX’s rumored $1.5T IPO!
BTC, the global life raft: a Russian megabank is testing DeFi products to meet surging customer demand for crypto — DL News.
Trade like a pro, but pay zero fees. Paradex offers a retail-only lane with RPI Orders, allowing everyday traders to get better prices than high-frequency traders.*
*this is sponsored content.
MILKY MEMES 🤣
ROADIE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🥛
VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY
