SpaceX's $80B raise drains market liquidity

GM. This is Milk Road Macro, the newsletter that knows that if you buy this IPO, it will crash, and if you don’t, then it’ll be up only forever, and those are literally the only two possible outcomes.

SpaceX is about to hit the market with the largest IPO in history. The United States has reignited the conflict in Iran. Kevin Warsh is one week away from his first FOMC meeting as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The macroeconomic landscape seems to be getting more complex and volatile in a year that has already seen historic volatility. Let’s pave a Milk Road through this noise and break down what you need to know.

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PANIC AT THE AI IPO

Oh, doctor, here comes the big mother. Close your shorts and check your stop loss. Hold on to your butt and wear your helmet. Keep your arms and legs inside the margin call at all times.

I hope you weren’t trying to raise investment capital this week because Elon Musk is going to grab up the whole scene with a record $1.77T market cap stonk.

The SpaceX IPO price is coming in at $135 a share under the ticker SPCX.

Source: Bloomberg

This transaction represents the largest initial public offering in global financial history. Absolutely raise-moggs the previous record-holder, Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6B in 2019.

Demand for the offering has been higher than one of Musk’s rockets.

Early indications of interest exceeding $250B, reflecting a significant oversubscription of three to four times the target raise.

Wall Street is dropping the usual formalities to fast-track the new equity. SpaceX bypassed the standard bookbuilding price range, proceeding directly to a fixed offering price of 135 dollars per share. This is a big deal for several reasons, but one is that this fixed price represents a substantial 61% premium over the split-adjusted private anchor valuation established in December 2025.

In other words, it’s a huge markup in price, and still 4X oversubscribed.

The SpaceX Form S-1 filing reveals a highly complex, capital-intensive operation that challenges conventional valuation frameworks. It’s hard to value stock in such an unprecedented company.

Skipping over the details, the company's accumulated deficit has now reached $41.3B. They spent a lot of this on a massive capital deployment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. To vertically integrate these advanced systems, SpaceX completed a merger with xAI in February 2026 at a combined valuation of $1.25T.

This physical layer of computing is supported by substantial recurring revenue contracts, including Starlink’s Colossus 1 data center securing a $1.25B monthly contract with Anthropic, combined with a $29B AI cloud agreement with Google.

I made another chart to help break this all down.

Source: Milk Road Macro

Side note: If you want the good stuff, you gotta join Milk Road PRO and hop into Discord with me. I answer macro questions day and night, and I even throw in a few memes and gifs now and then to spice things up. I promise you’ll like it. It’s just a buck, and it doesn’t suck! :D

The broader market implications of this mega-IPO extend far beyond the aerospace sector.

1. The extraction of $74B in public capital represents a profound liquidity drain on the financial system. There is an infinite amount of money at the Federal Reserve, but not at the Nasdaq.

Pulling liquid reserves away from other equity sectors at a time when Wall Street is already enduring a broad retrenchment could put downward pressure on other risk assets for a while.

2. The corporate governance structure is highly concentrated. Elon Musk retains 85% of the voting control despite owning 42% of the equity, meaning the public market is financing massive capital expenditures while exerting minimal influence over operational decisions. Not ideal, unless, of course, you happen to be Elon Musk.

3. And this is big, under Nasdaq's fast-entry rules, the immense scale of SpaceX will enable it to enter major benchmarks like the Nasdaq-100 after just fifteen trading days.

Yeah. That’s right. They’re gonna shove SPCX into the index in two weeks.

This transition will trigger massive, mandatory reallocations by passive index-tracking funds. Asset managers will be forced to sell off existing constituent holdings to accommodate SPCX in their portfolios. What does that mean? It means turbulence and volatility, and nobody knows how much or how it shakes out.

This is where I would love to pretend I know exactly how all of this is going to go, but I don’t. No one does. Not even Elon. The best advice I can give you here is to pay attention. Don’t get emotional. Make a plan that makes sense for you, and stick to it.

Stay safe. Stay educated. Stay bullish.

Until next time, enjoy the ride!