🥛 $80K: we got there. Now what? 🤔

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✍️ $80K: we got there. Now what?
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitcoin Hits $80K… Is the Next Crypto Bull Run Starting? w/ John Gillen.
🍪 BMNR holds 5.18M ETH. That's 4.29% of total supply.

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$80K: WE GOT THERE. NOW WHAT?

Last Tuesday, we told you all eyes were on $80,000. That was THE level for Bitcoin. The line in the sand. Crack it, and the dominoes line up.

Well… we got there.

And then promptly got swatted back down to $78.8k.

So… are we on or what?

That’s the question we dedicated this week’s Monday morning team huddle to - here’s where it shook out:

First, the thing that's been bugging me…

The bearish catalysts keep stacking up:

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
Oil shortages continue to pile up at an alarming rate.
Iranian State media claimed two missiles struck a U.S. warship near the Strait of Hormuz earlier this morning (though the U.S. Central Command has strongly denied reports).

Source: @MilkRoadMacro

And yet… markets keep ripping higher.

John's answer gave me a better understanding of how our big-brained analysts are thinking about all of this right now.

"The bull market's intact. Everything's fine. There's a ton of money coming out of everybody's ass."

His read: the world adapts to bottlenecks. There's a block in a major artery, sure, but the resources route around it. Prices climb, but they don't explode.

(I.e. the market reacts → demand finds new supply → life goes on.)

Ukraine didn't collapse the global economy. COVID didn't either. The Strait being closed isn't going to do it on its own.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is sitting at 7,200. The lengthening cycle theory we've been beating the drum on is playing out in slow motion. And the crazy blow-off top we thought we missed?

John's current view is that it might still be forming.

Just not all at once. Gold and silver had their moment. Equities are having theirs. Crypto is the laggard.

So that should be wildly bullish for Bitcoin, right?

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$80K: WE GOT THERE. NOW WHAT?

Despite all of the above, John is not deploying capital.

And that, for me, is the most important takeaway from today’s team huddle.

Because touching $80k isn't enough. And bouncing off $80k definitely isn't enough.

For this to be a real breakout (the kind that flips us from "watch and wait" to "deploy") Bitcoin needs to run through $80k up towards/through ~$85k - with enough momentum to forge a path to attacking $100k again.

If it can't? Then this whole move is just a dead cat bounce.

(Which is trader-talk for a brief recovery in a falling market that fools people into thinking the bottom is in, before it keeps falling.) 👇

Source: TradingView

The thing that's nagging John? Ben Cowen (who has been one of the most accurate market callers of the last five years) predicted this exact chop.

If we fade from here, this entire rally is just ‘Ben being right again.’ New lows incoming. Bottom in Q3 or Q4.

The signal John needs to flip fully bullish? "We need to short-squeeze like $10k higher in an hour."

Translation: bears need to get caught offside → be forced to buy into oblivion → ripping BTC violently through a whole bunch of resistance in the process.

Anything less and we’re still in “the market is making up its mind” territory.

John’s base case right now is that we've already bottomed at $60k and everyone's misreading this. But the base case isn't the same as "buy now." It's "buy when the chart confirms it."

So here's the split heading into this week:

If Bitcoin gets past $80k, through $85k, and starts climbing with a view toward six figures - that's the green light. The 70 days of head-banging-against-the-ceiling finally pays off, and we start adding to our positions.

If it rolls over and heads back towards $70k - we sit pretty and wait for ~$60k to buy.

And if it just keeps doing what it's been doing - banging its head, neither breaking out nor breaking down?

Then we stay put - tilting bullish, and sitting on our hands.

INTRODUCING: MILK ROAD ANALYST PAY DAY 💰

On the first Monday of every month, each of our analysts gets $500 dropped into their portfolio. What they do with it is up to them. Some will put it to work right away, others may sit in cash until markets feel friendlier. Either way, they have to explain their thinking.

It's the same thing a lot of you are already doing, taking a slice of your paycheck and putting it to work. The difference is you get to watch exactly how the analysts think about it, in real time. We cover all of it in a report and a live AMA on the first Wednesday of every month.

Next up on the schedule:

📆 May 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

We go live this Wednesday in the Milk Road Discord with John, Melvin and Martin 🫡 Come hear them break down their first Pay Day picks and ask them anything. Submit your questions using this form.

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