GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter hotter than your laptop mining ETH in 2017.
Hereβs a taste of this weekβs menu:
- π₯ BTC is stupid, but crypto will still rip.
- π₯΅ Crypto isn't the main character anymore.
- πΆοΈ The AI build-out might be a mirage.
Nexo is back in the U.S. - and new clients get 30 days of Wealth Club Premier perks! Higher yields, lower borrowing rates, and crypto cashback - start here.
HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK π₯
BTC is stupid, but crypto will still rip π
Henrik Zeberg (Head Macroeconomist at Swissblock) came in swinging to the Milk Road Macro show - saying he was convinced BTC has no real value.
He literally called it "stupid" and compared the fixed-supply pitch to the 1989 Tokyo land bubble.
Then he told us he's betting on a massive crypto melt-up anyway.
His logic is pure animal spirits:
The global stock market is ~$130T, crypto's barely $2T, so even $700-800B rotating in during a blow-off top could send it vertical, with ETH printing new all-time highs while BTC bounces.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
Crypto isn't the main character anymore π¬
EliΓ©zer Ndinga (Director of Research at 21Shares) says crypto is no longer the main character - framing it like the internet in 2003, right after the dot-com bust cleared out the junk.
Now only the projects with real revenue, users, and developers survive and decouple from everything else.
His example: Hyperliquid is up 100% this year while Bitcoin is down 20%.
With SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs vacuuming up all the attention, EliΓ©zer says crypto has to earn its keep on fundamentals now.
(And the survivors will be crypto's Amazon and Google.)
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
The AI build-out might be a mirage ποΈ
On our AI roundtable podcast, our PRO analyst, Vincent, broke from the room and waved a red flag on the AI build out.
The case he made:
JP Morgan's satellite imagery shows 60%+ of the data-center capacity slated for 2027 hasn't even broken ground, and only ~5% of the GPUs already out there are actually powered on.
Meanwhile demand is fleeing expensive U.S. labs for cheap Chinese open-source alternatives, DeepSeek slashed its cost per token ~75%, and reportedly ~80% of startups are already running open models.
If the U.S. labs keep bleeding share, Vincent says the entire CapEx trade is in danger, and he's trimming into it.
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
CRYPTO SHOULD WORK HARDER FOR YOU
Most people hold crypto and hope.
The smart money? They're earning interest on it, borrowing against it without selling, and trading it.
Where can you do the same all in one place? Nexo.
And right now, new U.S. clients get 30 days of Wealth Club Premier (benefits normally reserved for loyalty program members):
- Enhanced interest rates on your digital assets
- Lower borrowing costs against your crypto
- Up to 0.5% cashback on trades
No need to sell to access liquidity. No juggling 5 different platforms.
*Disclaimer: Geographic restrictions and terms apply.
HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK (P2) π₯
Saylor talks in infinities, so the market panics in infinities βΎοΈ
Matt Hougan (Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise) had a read on why BTC face-planted from ~$76K to ~$59K.
Everyone blamed Strategy selling 32 BTC, but Matt says the real problem is how Saylor talks - always in infinities, like βBitcoin to $1M.β
So when Strategy sells a tiny amount of BTC, the market freaks out and wonders if they'll dump all 831,000 - because "everything breaks in infinity."
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
The housing data is lying to you (and to the fed) ποΈ
Melody Wright (housing analyst behind the M3 Substack) came in with a helluva warning:
Don't trust the housing numbers, including the ones the Fed leans on.
She caught Redfin restating national median home prices down ~$44K going back to 2012 - a month ago they pegged the median at $476K, now it's $390K - and they won't tell her why.
She also drove 3,000+ miles to prove that Realtor(dot)com, which feeds the Fed's FRED data, is missing roughly 25% of real inventory.
If the data providers are lying, what else don't we know?
ποΈ Listen to the full episode here.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD πͺ
Is this one of crypto's most underrated real-adoption plays? XDC sits right where RWAs, cross-border payments, and institutional money are all colliding.*
Brian Armstrong: The lack of U.S. crypto regulation has actually harmed American consumers more than helped them.
Matt Hougan: "The market hates uncertainty more than it hates bad news." And right now, the passage of the CLARITY Act is creating uncertainty in the market.
Trade alert: Our PRO analyst called Bloom Energy at ~$131 a share, before it ran 146% - and on Tuesday, he started selling. Hereβs whyβ¦
DeFi Saver turns Aave v4 into a trading bot for your loans: Stop losses, take profits, and one-click loan migration - we broke down the pros, cons, and fees so you don't have to.
*this is sponsored content.
MILKY MEMES π€£
