GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that runs hotter than a GPU in a Texas heatwave.
Hereโs a taste of this weekโs menu:
- ๐ฅ Elon's wrong.
- ๐ฅต Everyone cheering on BTC has the chart backwards.
- ๐ถ๏ธ Micron just printed gas-station robbery margins.
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HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK ๐ฅ
Elon's wrong, the biggest product on Earth is a weight-loss pill ๐
Kyle (our Head of Research) threw a jab straight at the humanoid-robot crowd:
Elon keeps saying robots will be the biggest product ever - Kyle says it's not even close: it's a pill that makes you lose weight.
His way to play it is Eli Lilly, which he calls "the Google of healthcare" because it owns a whole ecosystem of biotech bets and just moved GLP-1s from injections to a daily small-molecule pill.
And the numbers here are wild: 43% of the U.S. is obese, 76% overweight, and only ~5% of diagnosed patients are on GLP-1s so far.
Kyle's bigger bet is that biotech is the real "app layer" of AI, since drug research, diagnostics, and manufacturing are all just data problems, and he's already buying the ARKG genomic ETF betting Lilly acquires half its holdings.
๐๏ธ Listen to the full episode here.
Everyone cheering on Bitcoin has the chart backwards ๐
Julio Moreno (Head of Research at CryptoQuant) came on to pour cold water on every "Bitcoin bottomed at $59k" take.
He flips the bullish narrative on its head:
When people celebrate long-term holder supply growing, Julio sees the opposite, it means no new demand wants to buy those coins off the holders.
He's tracking onchain "apparent demand" (borrowed from his commodities days) contracting at the fastest pace since January 2022, with ETF flows basically flat year-over-year for the first time ever.
Realized price puts the true "value zone" in the low $50Ks while we sit in the low $60ks, so we're close to the floor but not standing on it.
And since we still haven't seen the giant capitulation spike in realized losses that marked past bottoms, Julio thinks one more leg lower is on the table.
๐๏ธ Listen to the full episode here.
Micron just printed gas-station robbery margins ๐ฐ
Melvin (Milk Road's AI analyst) called Micron months ago and spent this podcast doing a full victory lap after the chip maker dropped ~$41.6B in quarterly revenue.
Theyโre up 346% YoY, with an 84.9% gross margin that he says is "more margin than if you went to rob your nearest gas station."
His whole thesis is that this isn't the usual memory boom-bust where everyone overbuilds and prices collapse, it's a structural rerating, because AI agents and data centers eat memory at a scale your iPhone never could.
He points to 16 binding multi-year customer contracts worth $100B+ in commitments, with $22B already deposited in cash, as proof hyperscalers are terrified of running out, not loading up at the top.
Melvin's targets (from the stockโs ~$1,200 price today): $1.8K to $2K by year end, then $3K to $4K into 2027-2028 if capex keeps ripping.
His one invalidation is supply showing up early and flooding the market.
๐๏ธ Listen to the full episode here.
TOKENIZED STOCKS JUST GOT AN UPGRADE
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- Terrible liquidity
- No dividend tracking
- Dead capital
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HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK (P2) ๐ฅ
The October bottom everyone's waiting for won't wait for October ๐
John Gillen (Milk Road's macro lead) figures the whole market is circling the same October bottom for Bitcoin, which is exactly why he expects it to get front-run and show up before Q4.
But his sharper point is that obsessing over the exact bottom is a trap, because bottoms aren't a V, they're a "bathtub" that chops sideways for months and wears you down.
He reminded the room that you only got $8 Solana last cycle if you were locked in watching it grind from $30 to $20 to $10 through the holidays, ignoring your family, not if you were chasing shiny objects elsewhere.
So he's sitting on a big cash pile with staggered bids under Bitcoin, ready to add if we get lower lows.
As he puts it: the money is made in the waiting.
๐๏ธ Listen to the full episode here.
Hyperliquid's "11 people, $600M" flex is missing a number โ ๏ธ
Martin (our lead crypto analyst) is tired of everyone fawning over Hyperliquid doing ~$600M a year with a skeleton crew.
His point: people quote the ~$50M a month in revenue but conveniently skip the ~$30M a month in token emissions needed to pay validators, so real economic profit is closer to $20M a month.
And as the hype price climbs, those incentive emissions climb right with it, diluting the whole thing.
His bigger worry is that ~90% of Hyperliquid's revenue is one product: people trading. Which works until it doesn't, especially now that Coinbase and Robinhood are rolling out regulated perps too.
Martin would rather own Coinbase, partly because every time he touches anything onchain in 2026 his transaction still gets stuck.
๐๏ธ Listen to the full episode here.
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Julio Moreno: ETF demand for Bitcoin has hit zero on a yearly basis for the first time since launch.
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MILKY MEMES ๐คฃ
