GM. This is Milk Road Macro, the newsletter that is here to help you think biggerly.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ Hormungous hold up.
- ✍️ Big government does big business.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Macro Show: 70 Years of Market Data Says the Strongest Bullish Signal Since 2025 Just Triggered w/ Milton Berg.
- 🍪 Scott Bessent locked in the "U.S.-EU Action Plan for Critical Minerals”.
Consensus Miami is one of the largest digital asset conferences that’s going all in on crypto and agentic commerce. Grab your passes at 20% off.
Prices as of 10:00 a.m. ET.
HORMUNGOUS HOLD UP
It’s Groundhormuz Day, again. The world's most important trade chokepoint remains closed.
The worst part?
The United States is acting like it’s happy to keep it closed for longer.
This might be a negotiation tactic, but if it is, it’s an expensive one.
Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran keep hitting deadlocks. The conversation is ongoing, but confused.
Iran briefly claimed the strait was "fully open," yet actual traffic is still below 8% of what it used to be.
Why it matters:
- Brent Crude is up 3.5% to $109 a barrel.
- Goldman Sachs warns that if this isn't fixed by July, we could see $140pb oil.
- High energy prices = sticky inflation. That means the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates.
Speaking of which, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has his last FOMC meeting this week as chairman of the board. We’ll report more on that after it happens.
THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY IS HEADING TO MIAMI
Where do you go to hear people talk about crypto, AI, and real capital?
If you surface-level takes, then it’s probably in my group chat.
But if you want institutions with deep pockets, you’ll have to head to Consensus Miami.
Consensus Miami is one of the largest digital asset conferences that’s going all in on crypto and agentic commerce.
Here are the key details:
- 20,000+ global attendees
- $4T AUM managed by finance giants attending Consensus Miami
- The ultimate intersection of crypto and AI
The best part?
You can get an exclusive 20% discount on passes with code MILKROAD.
BIG GOVERNMENT DOES BIG BUSINESS
Remember when the U.S. government dropped $9B into Intel back in August 2025?
Well, that bet just paid out big time.
The numbers: Intel shares surged 24% in a single day, hitting a 26-year high above $82. The government’s profit? A cool $27B.
The takeaway: This is bigger than just Intel. The entire semiconductor sector went on a record-breaking 18-day winning streak.
Investors have shifted their focus from chasing AI "apps" to chasing the "plumbing" of AI. The chips, the data centers, and the energy needed to run them.
Wrapping up
The big story behind these stories is scarcity.
There is a global shortage of energy and compute.
That’s what’s driving the market and the economy right now.
If you’re on the winning side of that, you’re doing very well.
If you need to pay market rates for energy and compute, however, you’re going to face a lot of headwinds.
Allocate accordingly and stay on the right side of this one!
Real Finance Blockchain is an EVM-compatible L1 that is built specifically for RWA tokenization. Read more about Real Finance Blockchain here.
Midnight is a fourth generation blockchain that just launched last week. Check out their launch announcement here.
Pharos is an institution-grade layer 1 (L1) designed specifically to bridge real-world assets onchain. Join the Pharos community (X & Discord) here.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Energy giant Shell just dropped $13.6B to buy Canadian firm ARC Resources. They’re betting that gas and "old school" energy will stay in high demand as AI data centers suck up more power.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just met with the EU’s trade chief to lock in the "U.S.-EU Action Plan for Critical Minerals." In the macro world, this is a huge deal for the energy transition and the tech rivalry with China. The goal is to secure the supply chains for the stuff that actually builds batteries and chips, ensuring the West isn't left in the dust as geopolitical tensions rise.
Real Brokerage is acquiring the iconic RE/MAX in a deal valued at $880M. They’re creating the "Real RE/MAX Group," which combines Real’s high-growth, AI-powered tech platform and RE/MAX’s legendary global brand and franchise network (which spans 120 countries).
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