GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that’s here to remind you to pay attention to the macro outlook, while at the same time reminding you that Bitcoin is somehow still ignoring the macro outlook.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ Risk off.
- ✍️ Calling all crypto nerds.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitcoin to $100K: Why This Bull Market Is Just Getting Started.
- 🍪 Arbitrum's 70x case.
Securitize is the company quietly powering BlackRock, Apollo and KKR's move onchain. Here's what you need to know about Securitize.
Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko.
RISK OFF
The headline allocation posture fell from -0.84 to -1.05 this week. This is deeply in RISK OFF territory for the Milk Road Macro Index.
Market momentum drove the entire -0.21 move, dropping from -0.59 to -0.80. The macro buffer held at its ceiling (+0.50) and stress remained at +0.00, which is as good as it gets.
The central irony is that September payrolls came in at just 29,000, the weakest print of the cycle, and equity markets responded by pricing relief rather than risk. Markets moved to price a roughly 85% chance the Fed holds rates in October, the VIX barely moved from 14.87 to 15.31, and stocks found brief footing from lower rate expectations.
So, that’s. Not bad?
However, financial conditions fell to their worst reading of the current cycle, pulled down by the MOVE index at 107.29 and the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.24%.
Which basically means that the bond market is selling off at a brutal pace.
For context, here's what panic in bonds has looked like over the last 18 years:
We think the likely outcome is that the VIX/MOVE gap closes through equity selling rather than rates calming. In other words, the stock market will probably sell off at some point soon.
Markets are treating a probable pause in rate hikes as enough to hold equities steady, but the Fed has not confirmed a hold, and the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed with peace talks at a standstill.
We think this means bond markets have no reason to retreat from yield extremes just because payrolls disappointed. Basically, the market still isn’t going to step in to buy bonds yet.
So that’s the situation. The equities market outlook is pretty rough.
The economy side looks much better.
The economy pillar holds at full strength. Jobless claims are near 57-year lows, core PCE is at 0.2% month-over-month.
However, there are some storm clouds forming here too. GDPNow was cut from 5.0% to 3.7% on wide goods trade weakness, and a labor market printing below 30,000 jobs is not consistent with the earnings assumptions keeping the VIX this low. If those assumptions adjust, equity selling tightens financial conditions further rather than allowing rates to ease on their own.
The dashboard stays at 0% exposure, and recovering to CAUTION (above -0.50) requires market momentum to reverse, a lot, fast. Which still depends on the same three conditions: an explicit Fed pause confirmation, a Hormuz resolution, or a rapid VIX repricing (stock market gigapump).
The October 14th CPI print is the nearest input, where a soft core reading gives the Fed its clearest window to confirm a hold that the markets are already pricing, while another 0.3%-plus print combined with continued labor weakness would begin pushing the economy pillar toward stress for the first time.
THE COMPANY BRINGING $400T OF TRADFI ONCHAIN
$400 trillion in stocks, bonds, funds and private credit sits in traditional finance.
Someone has to bring it onchain.
Securitize is already doing it and in July 2026, t hey went public on the NYSE under ticker $SECZ.
Few facts about Securitize:
- $4.6B+ in tokenized assets under management
- Works with BlackRock, Apollo, KKR, Hamilton Lane, BNY and VanEck
- Partnered with the NYSE to build tokenized securities markets
- Tokenized their own stock at IPO
One of the largest tokenized money market products in the world (BlackRock's $BUIDL fund) runs on Securitize rails.
Here's what you need to know about Securitize.
WHAT ABOUT CRYPTO?
Bitcoin is Bitcoining again.
For years, Bitcoin has tracked closely with the risk asset markets. Now, Bitcoin has re-entered a bull market while the macro outlook and the risk asset markets are facing serious challenges.
Funny how that happens, isn’t it?
You’re probably looking for me to give you some genius-level insight here. The truth is, the market has been so negative on crypto for so long that the last few months of bullish price action for Bitcoin and crypto have just been more or less a mean reversion. Getting back to average.
Some analysts are worried that these macro conditions are going to lead to a sell-off in risk assets, which will crush Bitcoin’s very new bull market before it ever gets going.
There is a risk of that.
However, I think all of these macro headwinds are very temporary, and it is much more likely that Bitcoin continues Bitcoining longer than these temporary market conditions take to resolve.
If you want to see how the rest of the Milk Road PRO analysts and I are navigating all of this in our portfolios and find out exactly what would make me flip back to being bearish on Bitcoin, join Milk Road PRO today for just a buck.
In the meantime, Bitcoin is in a bull market, but taking some risk off the table in the equities market seems to be the direction the Milk Road Macro Index is pointing.
We will continue to monitor the situation.
For now, stay safe, stay educated, and stay bullish (sort of)
CALLING ALL CRYPTO NERDS 🥛
If you wake up and check Bitcoin before the weather, spend too much time on Crypto Twitter, and can actually write, we might have a job for you.
Milk Road is looking for a crypto-focused writer/content creator to join the team.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Bitcoin miners made money by owning the machines. What if you could do the same with AI? B3 Labs lets investors own Nvidia GPUs and get paid when AI labs use the compute.*
Arbitrum's 70x case: Geoffrey Kendrick thinks more brokers following Robinhood onchain could take protocol revenue from ~$4-5M a month to $40-50M.
Europe's inflation problem: Eurozone inflation hit 3.8% in September, a three-year high and above the 3.6% forecast.
Aave's been busy: v4 is live on Ethereum, Avalanche, and Arc, and users can now take stablecoin loans against permissioned RWAs.
*this is sponsored content.
