GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that John takes over every Tuesday to bombard your inbox with Macro alpha and silly puns.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ Milk Road Macro Index gets cautious.
- ✍️ How do I do caution?
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Robinhood Is Building the Amazon Prime of Finance w/ Sam Andrew.
- 🍪 Kyle Reidhead: I think the market is setting up to go on a historic run.
Squid's $QUID public sale just closed 2,600% oversubscribed, raising $26.6M against a $1M target. See the full $QUID story.
Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko.
MILK ROAD MACRO INDEX GETS CAUTIOUS
Don’t panic. It’s just a little cautious.
Even though we’re still right on the borderline between RISK ON and CAUTION, the headline Milk Road Macro Index posture fell from +0.25.
This pushed us over the line from RISK ON to CAUTION. What does that mean?
It means stepping our recommended exposure to RISK ON assets down from 100% to 75%.
Personally, I am not making any moves on this yet. I already have a pretty chunky hunk of my portfolio in cash while I continue to buy the Bitcoin dip.
However, if you want to see how me and the rest of the Milk Road PRO analysts are currently positioned in this market, you can check out Milk Road PRO for 33% off this week!
Anyway, back to macro.
My previous brief called out this risk almost exactly. The market momentum drifted slightly to +0.67 and the macro buffer held at +0.33.
Unfortunately, neither recovered enough to push the posture back into RISK ON.
The payrolls shock that arrived last week is still the dominant weight on the real economy score at -0.87, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q2 growth at just 1.2% annualized. Which is hella weak sauce, to use a sophisticated economics term.
See? Weak sauce of the hella variety.
Anyway, one piece of good news is that ISM Services printed 54.0 on July 6th, sustaining two full years of expansion. Which is absolutely bangin’, but it was not enough to offset that growth drag, and the stress score remains elevated at +3.4.
Okay, so all told, we’re still bullish, but seeing some of the momentum in the market overall begin to slow down a bit.
What do we do about that?
Well, first you give yourself a big old forehead kiss for being such a curious cookie. And second, you keep reading this newsletter like an absolute gigachad!
2,600% OVERSUBSCRIBED. NOT A TYPO.
The $QUID public sale just closed:
- $26.6M raised against a $1M target
- 2,600% oversubscribed
- 3,538+ participants amidst poor market sentiment
Here's what the backers were actually buying into with Squid:
- $6B+ routed across chains since 2023
- 100+ chains supported
- 1,000+ integrators building on Squid infrastructure
- Ripple partnership
- Four years of shipping
Most crypto projects launch a token first and build the product later.
But Squid did it backwards and it paid off.
*Disclaimer: Hey Roadies! A reality check from the Milk Man: I know my dairy, not your dollars. This partner content isn't financial advice.
HOW DO I DO CAUTION?
Great question, John. Thanks for asking.
The CAUTION call is the framework's way of saying the market case is intact but no longer strong enough to carry the posture on its own. Financial conditions are doing the heavy lifting at +0.79 with credit tight, and volatility subdued.
However, with the macro buffer sitting at +0.33, more than a third eroded from its full strength, there is not enough cushion left to absorb another leg down in growth without risks to the bull market.
As you can see, Financial Conditions look great, but our Growth Impulse Indicator is dipping into the red.
For context, our Growth Impulse Indicator is a composite of ten macro components that helps us measure the rate of change of economic momentum. To read more about goes into that, you need to go Milk Road PRO which is 33% off for the next seven day.
Okay, so what should we be looking out for next?
July 14th is now the most decisive single day on the calendar in my opinion. We’re going to get a huge cocktail of market-moving macro data. Core CPI and a wall of major bank earnings. I’m talking Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley all report that morning. Additionally, Q2 Finance sector profits (expected up 12.5%) will be arriving simultaneously.
Meaning both pillars, the economy and the market, will face a major joint test in the same trading session.
Buckle up, buttercup.
A benign CPI paired with these major banks posting beat-and-raise results would strengthen financial conditions, begin firming breadth off its two-week drift lower, and give the macro buffer room to recover. That could push the posture back above the threshold for full RISK ON.
On the other hand, a hot print would rapidly unwind the rate-cut repricing that is currently propping financial conditions even if earnings deliver, which remains the most direct path to deeper compression and the primary watch point the prior brief left unresolved.
My take?
I think Warsh is in a rush to get his task forces to deliver reports that give him a basis for holding rates regardless of the inflation print. I’m expecting inflation to cool a bit now that oil is moving through Hormuz again, and that will give Warsh cover to let the bull market rage on.
I think Bitcoin is in the process of finding a bottom here as well. But it’s important to wait for confirmation on that too. A break above $74K would make me very bullish. In the short term, my next bid is set at $55K, and I think anything under $60K is a good time to open fire.
However, until we get some confirmation on all of this, keep an eye out for the 14th.
And until next time, stay safe, stay educated, and stay bullish.
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BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Best crypto loan platforms in 2026. Milk Road pick: Ledn.*
Lyn Alden: "When a currency fails, people temporarily default to a currency that hasn't failed yet - like dollars."
Kyle Reidhead: I think the market is setting up to go on a historic run. Analysts continue to call this an AI bubble and try to call the top, but they have been dead wrong.
Joe Lubin: if you saw what Ethereum is seeing from the inside, you'd be "wildly bullish."
Which crypto exchanges publish proof of reserves? Bitget has been reporting monthly since December 2022.**
*this is sponsored content. **this is partner content.
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