GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that doesn’t take a day off.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ What we’re watching this week.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: The Real Reason Ethereum Keeps Losing Momentum w/ Haseeb Qureshi.
- 🍪 Are alts making a comeback?
Arc is an open Layer-1 blockchain built for real-world financial applications. Public testnet is live, App Kits are here, and mainnet is getting closer. Start building on Arc.
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WHAT WE’RE WATCHING THIS WEEK 📅
Every Monday morning, the Milk Road team gets on a call and argues about what's happening in markets.
And today, it was a showdown between John and Martin.
The U.S.-Iran deal was back in the headlines over the weekend. Trump says an agreement will be coming very soon while Iran says a deal is “not imminent.”
So. The usual.
We’ve seen this exact movie play out about seven times now:
- Trump signals progress.
- Iran pushes back.
- Oil dips.
- Crypto and stocks tick up.
- Nothing gets signed.
- Rinse & repeat.
But here’s why John is keeping a close eye on the deal:
A deal means energy starts flowing again → Lower oil prices → Inflation cools → The Fed has more room to cut rates → More liquidity flows into risk assets like crypto → Number go up.
But Martin has a more critical view on Trump:
"Whatever he says, it's just not true. Like, ever."
His frustration isn't really about Iran, it's about the broader pattern. He thinks this uncertainty around Trump’s tweets makes it nearly impossible to trade with any conviction right now. 👇
"I think we are in times where it's really hard to read the market and have high confidence about where it's going to be in 30 or 90 days."
Either way, they both agree that a U.S.-Iran deal will be a bullish catalyst for the market. There’s just no clarity on when it’s actually going to come.
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WHAT WE’RE WATCHING THIS WEEK (P2) 📅
The next thing they argued about on the call was Ethereum. Specifically, the Ethereum Foundation (EF).
Lately, several high-profile contributors (like Carl Beek & Julian Ma) have left the Ethereum Foundation.
Here’s what John thought about this:
He pointed to a post Vitalik Buterin put out explaining his thinking.
Vitalik wants the Foundation to play a smaller and less central role. The goal is to spread decision-making across many independent teams instead of concentrating it in one organization.
And despite the criticism lately, Ethereum’s fundamentals still look strong:
- Network usage is at all-time highs.
- Fees are near all-time lows.
But Martin’s concern is more institutional:
When a big bank or asset manager is doing due diligence on Ethereum before allocating serious capital, they want to see a stable & credible team. Names they recognize. Researchers with track records.
"If the best people are leaving, it's not sending a good message, whatever the reason."
His view: you scale down the central organization after the product is battle-tested and mature. Not while you're still building.
Despite all the back and forth, here’s one thing they both did agree on: Bitcoin.
BTC dipped to around $74K at one point last week before bouncing back to the high 70s. Now it's sitting around $77K.
The key number to watch is $75K. If that holds, we're fine. If it breaks on another test, the next level down is $70K.
John's view: he doesn't think the bears have enough firepower to push us all the way back to $60K.
Two things that could change the picture quickly on the upside:
- Iran deal getting done.
- The Clarity Act starting to move.
Either one would give Bitcoin something to run on. Until then, $75K is the line in the sand.
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
Pre-internet money rails meet the agentic economy? Yikes. Arc is Circle’s open Layer-1 built for the internet-native economy. Humans and AI welcome.*
The bubble crowd is wrong again. Jordi Visser explains why AI won’t form a bubble like the dot-com era.
Polymarket blocked. Amidst a broader crackdown on online betting, Indonesia has blocked access to Polymarket.
Are alts making a comeback? Crypto funds sold Bitcoin and Ethereum last week to buy HYPE & XRP.
Special offer for Milk Road readers. Kalshi is giving Milk Road readers $10 free when you trade $10 on their platform.*
*this is sponsored content.
MILKY MEMES 🤣
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VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY
