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John Gillen speaks with onchain analyst Matt Crosby about whether Bitcoin’s long stretch near $64,000 is approaching a decisive break. Crosby argues that unusually low volatility, discounted valuation bands, and mounting holder losses suggest Bitcoin is at or near a bear-market bottom, with the balance of risk favoring gradual accumulation over waiting for a perfect entry.
They examine why four-year-cycle and seasonal patterns may be losing predictive power as Bitcoin becomes more correlated with equities, liquidity, and the US dollar. Crosby also outlines the bearish case, including short-term macro pressure, crowded leveraged longs, and a longer-term concern over miner incentives as block subsidies decline.
For confirmation of a stronger trend, Crosby is watching the short-term holder realized price around $67,000, nearby moving averages, and resistance through roughly $70,000. A sustained break above those levels could improve the outlook quickly, though derivatives positioning leaves room for a downside fakeout first.
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