GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that helps you move with confidence, not guesswork.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
- ✍️ Two scarcities are running the whole market.
- 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Crypto Q2 Outlook: What Actually Unlocks the Next Bull Run w/ David Duong.
- 🍪 The biggest trading hack Raoul Pal has used for 20 years.
Consensus Miami is one of the largest digital asset conferences that’s going all in on crypto and agentic commerce. Grab your passes at 20% off.
Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by Coingecko.
TWO SCARCITIES ARE RUNNING THE WHOLE MARKET ⚡️💻
Two scarcities are running global markets right now:
Energy and compute.
One is causing the biggest oil supply shock in history. The other has pushed Nvidia past $5T, and semiconductor stocks to levels that have never been hit before.
Almost nobody is connecting them. But they're part of the same story.
Let’s start with the energy side.
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Pre-war, 20M barrels a day moved through the chokepoint (about 20% of global oil demand). Today the flow is close to zero.
The daily shortfall sits between 6 and 11.4M bpd (barrels per day) depending on the estimate.
That gap is bigger than the daily oil consumption of the UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy combined.
Brent crude oil is bouncing between $105-110 right now.
Every time Trump posts something hopeful about a ceasefire, prices dip. Every time the resolution doesn't follow, they spike right back.
The problem is - this isn't getting fixed when a ceasefire gets signed.
The French government estimates 30-40% of Gulf refining capacity has been destroyed, and full repairs could take up to three years.
The global annual oil bill was $2-3T before the conflict. It's now moving toward $5-8T.
That extra $3-5T has to come out of consumer spending somewhere else.
And while energy is breaking, semis are on a vertical run:
- The S&P 500 just posted its highest net profit margin in 15+ years.
- Semiconductors went straight up for 18 days in a row (a new record).
- The SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) is now 43% above its 200-day moving average, the widest spread since June 2000.
Here's where the two stories fuse into one…
THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY IS HEADING TO MIAMI
Where do you go to hear people talk about crypto, AI, and real capital?
If you want surface-level takes, then it’s probably in my group chat.
But if you want institutions with deep pockets, you’ll have to head to Consensus Miami.
Consensus Miami is one of the largest digital asset conferences that’s going all in on crypto and agentic commerce.
Here are the key details:
- 20,000+ global attendees
- $4T AUM managed by finance giants attending Consensus Miami
- The ultimate intersection of crypto and AI
The best part?
You can get an exclusive 20% discount on passes with code MILKROAD.
TWO SCARCITIES ARE RUNNING THE WHOLE MARKET (P2) ⚡️💻
Six companies account for ~70% of the entire S&P 500's earnings upgrades for 2026.
Every one of those six sells into either compute or energy.
As for the rest of the market? More stocks are getting earnings revised down than they are up.
The few winners are winning big, while everyone else is feeling the pressure (even if the indices look fine).
Then we have the Kevin Warsh wildcard.
The new Fed Chair just walked through Senate confirmation pitching a "Back to Basics" Fed:
Kill inflation. Keep people employed. That’s it, nothing else.
His most interesting viewpoint? He thinks AI is deflationary and should factor into Fed policy.
That gives him political cover to cut rates even with U.S. inflation sitting at a two-year high of 3.3%.
He also wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet and let commercial banks take over more debt issuance, which pushes greater liquidity into the system, not less.
Which brings us to the potential Bitcoin setup...
The ISM Manufacturing PMI, a key gauge of U.S. manufacturing activity, pushed (and stayed) above the level 50 this year - indicating that U.S. economic growth had flipped from ‘contraction’ to ‘expansion’:
A forecast of high liquidity, ISM above 50, and low rates relative to where the economy is actually running?
Historically that's the exact mix where Bitcoin and crypto outperform.
And sure - BTC is still in a downtrend, with the market is positioned for new lows. But the bullish tailwinds are stacking, a short squeeze is on the table, and the CLARITY Act could land as a catalyst in May or June.
The takeaway:
We’re in a reflationary regime - where two scarcities are deciding which companies thrive and which get left behind.
The setup for risk assets (inc. crypto) is coming into view.
The hard part is positioning - because the market can look fine while six stocks do all the work and you sit on the wrong side of the trade.
If you want to learn more, we just put out a full Milk Road Macro PRO report breaking all this down further.
(A PRO membership also gets you the trades we've made in the last month, along the specific assets we're holding/selling/watching.)
BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪
The entire industry is headed to Miami. Get 20% off Consensus Miami passes with code MILKROAD.*
Fingers crossed: Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott wants the CLARITY Act on the President's desk this summer. That's the goal at least. Here's what's blocking it...
Insight: The single biggest trading hack Raoul Pal has used for 20 years? Write your trade down.
We’re living in the future: Stripe just built a wallet where your AI agent shops for you. You just approve the charge.
Higher earnings rates. Lower borrowing costs. Up to 0.5% cashback. New U.S. clients get these benefits on Nexo for 30 days.**
*this is sponsored content. **this is partner content.
MILKY MEMES 🤣
ROADIE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🥛
VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY
