🥛 Everyone's bearish → that's bullish 💀

GM. This is Milk Road, the daily crypto newsletter that turns "overwhelm" into "understanding".

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

✍️ All eyes on $80k.
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Tokenized RWAs Could Be Crypto’s Biggest Long-Term Opportunity w/ Olivier Dang.
🍪 Saylor has now purchased almost 150k BTC YTD.

Consensus Miami is one of the largest digital asset conferences that’s going all in on crypto and agentic commerce. Grab your passes at 20% off.

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ALL EYES ON $80K 👀

It's been one of those 7-day periods where owning crypto feels like having your sock slink down inside your boot.

(Super frustrating.)

Equities ripped to new all-time highs → Bitcoin stayed ping-ponging between $75k and $79k.

… what the hell, dude??

But our in-house macro wizard, John Gillen, flagged something on The Milk Road Show yesterday that has me eyeing BTC’s $80k level, and channeling my inner Lloyd Christmas. 👇

Source: Giphy

‘Cause - let’s all admit it - none of us got the bull market we were hoping for…

Bitcoin made new all-time highs. But it grinded its way there.

(No euphoric blow-off top, no magazine covers, no parabolic candle that screamed "we’ve peaked.")

Meanwhile, the TOTAL3 (the market cap of crypto excluding BTC, ETH, and stables) only managed a single weekly close above its previous all-time high, before collapsing ~50%.

Source: TradingView

On top of all of that…

BTC is now bumping its head against the ~$80k resistance level.
Bears are loading up on shorts, preparing for the next big leg down.
And the new consensus is that Bitcoin will bottom in Oct/Nov this year.

(It’s not the rosiest of outlooks.)

But John made the point that this kind of widespread agreement is something to be wary of…

Remember Q4 2025?

Almost everyone agreed it was going to be the most bullish quarter of the cycle.

Then October 10 happened, bulls were caught over-leveraged, the rug got pulled, and a whole bunch of capital moved from bulls, to bears.

And herein lies your daily dose of hopium…

THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY IS HEADING TO MIAMI

Where do you go to hear people talk about crypto, AI, and real capital?

If you want surface-level takes, then it’s probably in my group chat.

But if you want institutions with deep pockets, you’ll have to head to Consensus Miami.

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ALL EYES ON $80K 👀

Right now, John sees the potential for an early reversal.

And his theory goes like this:

Bear markets often end the same way bull markets do, just flipped.

The over-confident side gets washed out, momentum shifts, and a new trend starts before anyone's ready for it.

The idea being: today’s bears could well be where the bulls were on October 10.

And there’s bullish structural support to back that theory up…

Roughly 300,000 BTC has recently moved from short-term holders (anyone holding under 155 days) into long-term holder’s wallets.
About 16.5M of Bitcoin's total supply now sits in the hands of those long-term holders (that’s ~78.5% of the 21M that will ever exist).
Saylor's still buying. Tom Lee's buying. Wall Street's buying.
And spot crypto ETFs pulled in around $1.2B of inflows last week.

Those forces are hard to fight! 👇

Source: @Cointelegraph

Now, it should be said - none of this guarantees anything. We could absolutely make new lows from here, and John himself said if that happens, he's simply buying more.

But the broader point he’s trying to make is that Bitcoin has a long history of zigging when the crowd expects it to zag.

The current expected ‘zag’ = Bitcoin gets rejected from the ~$80k level, continues down, and breaks the base of its current bear flag to make new lows.