Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Surge to 95%: Bloomberg Analyst

Published: Jan 8, 2024
Written By:
Vignesh Karunanidhi
Milk Road Writer

A prominent ETF analyst at Bloomberg this week edged Bitcoin ETF approval odds to a bullish 95%. Eric Balchunas also pushed out unlikely rejection triggers that could hinder the approval of the much-awaited spot Bitcoin ETF. 

Key Details:

  • Bloomberg ETF expects 95% odds of the SEC approving spot BTC ETF.
  • Marks increase from the previous 90% estimate.
  • However, unlikely wildcards could still dash Bitcoin hopes.

Bloomberg Bitcoin ETF analyst ramps up approval expectation

Eric Balchunas conveyed a 95% possibility on X with fellow analyst James Seyffart, who said only a 5% chance exists that the SEC suddenly stonewalls a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. The elevated confidence expands on previous 90% approval predictions from Bloomberg Intelligence.

Read more: Logan Paul Commits $2.3M To Buy Back CryptoZoo NFTs; Top Investor Threatens Lawsuit

Crypto prediction market Polymarket remains more cautious, with 80% odds of a spot ETF by January 15th. When considering potential rejection triggers, analyst Seyffart has outlined scenarios such as Ark Invest withdrawing its bid, encountering new regulatory obstacles from SEC Chair Gensler, or disregarding court orders that favor the Grayscale trust conversion.

Over a dozen applicants aim to introduce the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Recently, amended 19b-4 filings were submitted by BlackRock, Grayscale, Fidelity, and other issuers on Friday.

Read more: Arthur Hayes Cautions Against Buying Bitcoin Until March: Here’s Why

Even though speculations are on the rise, there is no final date provided by the SEC for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. The global crypto market is eagerly anticipating the outcome of the pending applications.

If you are new and puzzled by all the hype about Bitcoin ETFs, check out this dedicated ETF section. We explain everything you need to know about these ETFs and the latest companies to join the bandwagon with their applications.

Vignesh Karunanidhi

Vignesh has been a seasoned professional in the crypto space since 2017. He has been writing for over 6 years and specializes in writing and editing various types of crypto content, including news articles, long-form pieces, and blog posts, all focused on sharing the beauty of blockchain and crypto.

Vignesh Karunanidhi
Milk Road Writer
Vignesh has been a seasoned professional in the crypto space since 2017. He has been writing for over 6 years and specializes in writing and editing various types of crypto content, including news articles, long-form pieces, and blog posts, all focused on sharing the beauty of blockchain and crypto.